MLB Player Prop Picks (American League Pitchers) 9/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

Shane Smith Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox 7:40 PM EST

Shane Smith has had a solid rookie campaign, coming into this one with a 6–7 record, a 3.78 ERA, and 122 strikeouts over 131 innings pitched. He has maintained a 1.18 WHIP, showing decent control and ability to limit baserunners. When looking at his home/away splits, at home, his numbers are considerably better, with more efficiency and fewer runs allowed. Shanke Smith was lights out in this last start, allowing 0 earned runs against the Tampa Bay Rays. He should have another solid outing in this one, going against this Baltimore Orioles lineup that has continued to struggle when playing on the road. 

Check out Brad’s BEST PICKS, including his $19 PICK OF THE DAY!

Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 K’s

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays 7:35 PM EST

Ryan Pepiot has been a reliable and effective starter for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025. Through 29 starts, he holds an 11–10 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, striking out 161 batters over 163 innings. Among his standout outings was a five-inning no-hit effort against the Cleveland Guardians on September 5th, allowing only two walks and striking out six to help secure a 4–2 win. When it comes to a strikeout perspective, Pepiot has logged 6+ strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts. The Blue Jays have been great this season, but we’ve seen some inconsistencies at the plate over the last couple of series. I’ll take my chances that Pepiots’ strikeout success continues.


Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 Earned Runs

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins 7:40 PM EST

Zebby Matthews has shown flashes of potential in his rookie season with the Minnesota Twins, though his results have been inconsistent. Through 14 starts, he holds a 4–5 record with a 5.06 ERA across 69.1 innings, striking out 80 batters while posting a 1.46 WHIP. His command has been solid at times, and when he’s efficient, he’s capable of shutting down lineups. However, his underlying metrics suggest he is still adjusting to big league hitters. Opponents are averaging nearly 89 mph in exit velocity against him with a 37% hard-hit rate and a 9% barrel rate, which has contributed to his inconsistency. We already saw him get him up earlier this season against the Yankees, where he gave up 3 HR’s through 5 innings of work. With how much hard contact Matthews gives up, he’ll struggle with a lineup like the Yankees.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above