MLB Player Prop Picks 8/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks (National League Pitchers)

Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 K’s

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates 2:20 PM EST

Shōta Imanaga has put together a highly effective season as a starting pitcher for the Cubs, going 8–5 with a 3.19 ERA and a stellar 0.97 WHIP across 17 starts and 96 innings pitched. He’s recorded 79 strikeouts and just 17 walks, yielding an impressive K/BB rate that underscores his excellent command and control. Opponents are posting an average exit velocity of just 89.9 mph, with a hard-hit rate of 39.3% and a barrel rate of 10.7%. His actual wOBA against stands at .279, with an expected wOBA (xwOBA) of .302, indicating that his results are in line, or even slightly better, than his contact profile suggests. We’ve seen him have 7+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 games, and I don’t see him slowing down in this one, going against a bad Pirates lineup. 

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Zach Littell Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers 6:40 PM EST

Zack Littell has delivered a solid 2025 campaign as a starting pitcher. Over the course of the season, he amassed a combined 9–8 win–loss record, along with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across both clubs. During his tenure with the Rays, he went 8–8 with a 3.58 ERA in 22 starts before being traded to Cincinnati midseason. His performance earned him a move to the Reds in a three-team deal in late July. Littell struggled in his last start against the Pirates, where he gave up 4 earned runs through 4.2 innings of work. Things won’t get easier for him in this one, going against the Brewers, who are the hottest team in baseball and have been punishing pitchers over this incredible run they’re on.

Justin Verlander Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants 9:05 PM EST

Justin Verlander entered the 2025 season in his 20th MLB campaign, signing a one-year deal with the Giants. Across 20 starts, he holds a 1–9 record, sporting a 4.53 ERA over 99.1 innings pitched, alongside 87 strikeouts and a 1.50 WHIP. His early season featured a historically tough stretch, as he went winless through his first 16 starts, setting a franchise record for the longest single-season winless streak in Giants history. With that being said, we have seen some improvements from Verlander, allowing 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of his last 5 starts. I like him to continue that success in this one, going against the Rays, who’ve struggled at the plate since returning back from the all-star break.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above