MLB Player Prop Picks 07/23/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Bailey Falter Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM EST

Bailey Falter has emerged as a reliable mid-rotation starter, making 20 starts and logging 101.1 innings with a 6–5 record, a 4.00 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. Notably, he performed better on the road (4.78 ERA) than at home (5.61 ERA). Falter has battled hard contact; opponents averaged 90.4 mph exit velocity, with a 45.6% hard-hit rate and 9.2% barrel rate. His expected wOBA (.339) is notably higher than his actual (.319), suggesting he has run into some good luck or benefited from sequencing. We’ve seen Falter give up 3+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Falter just isn’t in great form right now, and I expect the Tigers to take advantage of that. 

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Dylan Cease Over 6.5 K’s
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins 6:40 PM EST

Dylan Cease is having a mixed but intriguing 2025 season with the San Diego Padres. Through 20 starts, he has posted a 3–9 record with a 4.64 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 108.2 innings, while racking up 139 strikeouts, good for an elite 11.5 K/9 rate that ranks top-10 in MLB. Despite his high strikeout totals, Cease’s ERA is inflated due to bouts of hard contact and occasional command issues. However, his advanced metrics tell a more optimistic story: his 3.23 FIP and .301 xwOBA both suggest he’s been more effective than his traditional stats indicate. While Cease has experienced some blow-up outings, particularly earlier in the year, he’s still been very solid when it comes to a strikeout perspective. He’s recorded 8+ strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 games and is coming off a start where he logged 10 K’s against the Nationals. 

Chris Paddack Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 PM EST

Chris Paddack’s 2025 season with the Minnesota Twins has been a mixed bag, marked by durability but also inconsistency. Over 20 starts, he posted a 3–9 record with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP across 105 innings. His strikeout numbers were lower than usual, with just 75 punchouts (6.43 K/9), though he maintained solid control, walking only 2.31 batters per nine innings. While his walk rate remained a strength, Paddack struggled to limit hard contact. Opponents averaged nearly 90 mph off the bat, with a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 8.1% barrel rate. He gave up 14 home runs, one of the highest totals among qualified starters, which contributed to his elevated ERA. He’s given up 3+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and now has to go up against a powerful Dodgers lineup. I don’t see this being the start Paddack gets it together.