MLB Player Prop Picks 07/19/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Dean Kremer Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays 7:35 PM EST

Dean Kremer is serving as a dependable mid-rotation arm. Over 19 appearances, including 18 starts, he has recorded an 8–7 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP across 108.1 innings. Kremer has struck out 88 batters while walking only 27, demonstrating good control with a respectable 2.24 BB/9 rate. We’ve seen plenty of bright moments from Kremer this season, but we’ve also seen the other side of that coin as well, with him having multiple blowup starts. One area of concern has been his susceptibility to home runs, largely due to a fly-ball-heavy profile, with his HR/9 rate hovering around 1.25. This Rays team has already seen him this season and had success. This ballpark isn’t an easy place to pitch at, and I expect the Rays to exploit that. 

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Eric Lauer Over 4.5 K’s
San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 PM EST

Eric Lauer has delivered an impressive 2025 campaign for the Toronto Blue Jays, showing strong performance in both starts and relief outings. Over 14 appearances (8 starts), he has posted a 4–2 record with a stellar 2.78 ERA across 55.0 innings, complemented by a tidy 1.04 WHIP and 58 strikeouts. His home/away splits show strong performances in Toronto, including a 2.45 ERA over 22 innings in five home starts. We’ve seen Lauer log 5+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’ll be facing this Giants lineup, which has not only struggled on the road but has struggled greatly against left-handed pitching this season. Expect Lauer to have another solid outing in this one and fill up the strikeout column. 

Lance McCullers Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 10:10 PM EST

Lance McCullers Jr.’s 2025 MLB season has been tumultuous, but there have been bright moments throughout his season. After missing Opening Day due to elbow surgery, he returned on May 4 and has since made 10 starts, posting a 2–4 record with a 6.48 ERA across 41.2 innings, alongside a 1.66 WHIP and 49 strikeouts. He matched a career-high 12 strikeouts over six innings against Oakland on May 28th, and on June 3rd, he notched his 50th career win with a dominant six shutout innings versus the Pirates, striking out seven. It’s been boom or bust for McCullers this season. McCullers needed the All-Star break, and I expect him to have a good outing against Seattle on Saturday. He’ll be pitching at T-Mobile Park, one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, and will be facing a Seattle lineup that has struggled to produce runs at home. This is a great spot for McCullers to get back on track. 

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above