MLB Player Prop Picks 07/18/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles 7:35 PM EST

Taj Bradley has had a decent, though somewhat inconsistent, 2025 MLB season for the Tampa Bay Rays. Through 19 starts, he has posted a 5–6 record with a 4.60 ERA across 103.2 innings pitched. He’s struck out 89 batters and holds a 1.27 WHIP, ranking him around league average in most traditional categories. While his ERA suggests some inconsistency, his advanced metrics paint a more optimistic picture. His FIP sits closer to 3.60, indicating that poor sequencing or defensive miscues may be inflating his earned run total. He’s coming off a great start against the Red Sox, but has had some recent tough outings, including a start against this same Orioles team where he gave up 7 earned runs through 2 innings. The Orioles have proved that they can hit off Bradley, and we should see them do that again in this one. 

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Lucas Giolito Over 17.5 Outs
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST

Lucas Giolito has put together a solid 2025 season for the Boston Red Sox, rebounding from prior inconsistencies to become a dependable part of the rotation. Over 13 starts, he holds a 6–1 record with a 3.36 ERA across 72.1 innings, striking out 64 batters while posting a 1.23 WHIP. One of the biggest stories of Giolito’s season has been the stark contrast between his home and road splits. He’s been dominant on the road, going 3–0 with a 1.95 ERA in six starts, while struggling more at Fenway Park, where his ERA is closer to 5.83. Overall, his 2025 campaign has been a promising resurgence, and if he continues to control the strike zone and maintain composure on the mound, he’ll remain a key contributor to Boston’s playoff hopes. He’s recorded 18+ outs in all of his last 4 starts. I expect him to continue that success and go far in this one. 

Reese Olson Over 15.5 Outs
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers 8:05 PM EST

Reese Olson has had an impressive breakthrough in the 2025 MLB season for the Detroit Tigers. Over 11 starts spanning 58 innings, he holds a 4–3 record with a stellar 2.95 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, striking out 55 while walking 22. Olson generates a healthy 46.5% ground-ball rate and limits hard contact, with a hard-hit percentage that’s league-average. Even though we haven’t seen Reese go very long in a lot of his starts, I do expect him to have a longer leash in this game. This is a very favorable matchup going against the Rangers, who’ve been poor at the plate this season. In what I expect to be a lower-scoring game, expect Olson to go deep in this one.