MLB Player Prop Picks 07/11/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Logan Webb Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants 10:15 PM EST

Logan Webb has solidified himself as the anchor of the Giants’ rotation, making 19 starts and posting an 8–6 record with a stellar 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 133 strikeouts over 120⅓ innings, ranking 11th in ERA and 5th in strikeouts across MLB. Notably, he has been dominant at home, tossing a 1.52 ERA across 9 starts and 59⅓ innings at Oracle Park. He’ll be facing a Dodgers lineup that’s ice cold at the moment. The Dodgers are currently on a 6-game losing streak, and in that span, they’ve failed to put up more than 2 runs in each of those games. Now he has to go into a pitcher-friendly ballpark and play one of the league’s most consistent starters in Logan Webb. 

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Rangers Suarez Over 5.5 Earned Runs
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres 9:40 PM EST

Ranger Suárez has emerged as one of baseball’s premier starters, compiling a stellar 7–2 record with a 1.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 12 starts and 77 innings, striking out 73 batters, leading to an impressive 8.5 K/9 rate. His recent stretch has been dominant. In his last seven outings, he’s gone 3–2 with a 1.35 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 46.2 frames, boasting a 0.92 WHIP. He’s allowed fewer than 2 runs in all of his last 6 starts. Suarez is currently one of the hottest pitchers in the MLB, and he has a favorable matchup in this one. He’ll be pitching in Petco Park, which is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. I expect this to be an all-around low-scoring game and Suarez to continue to deal.

Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardnials 8:15 PM EST

Matthew Liberatore emerged as a solid and consistent presence in the St. Louis Cardinals’ starting rotation. Over 16 starts, he posted a 6–6 record with a 3.70 ERA across 97.1 innings pitched. His WHIP hovered between 1.16 and 1.18, showing notable improvement in his ability to limit baserunners compared to previous seasons. Liberatore struck out 80 batters while issuing just 21 walks, resulting in an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio of approximately 3.8. His command was a standout feature this season, placing him among the league’s most efficient starters in terms of control. I love this matchup for Liberatore with him going against the Braves. The Braves have not only been terrible on the road, but they’ve struggled against lefties.