MLB Player Prop Picks 07/11/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 K’s
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers 7:10 PM EST

Tarik Skubal has been utterly dominant, posting a 10–2 record with a 2.02 ERA ranking 2nd in MLB alongside an elite 0.81 WHIP, and 148 strikeouts over 116 innings, tying for 2nd in the league in Ks. Opponents average only 85.7 mph exit velocity and 32.4% hard-hit rate. He’s coming off back-to-back games where he surpassed the double-digit strikeout mark and has logged 23 total strikeouts combined in those games. Skubal is pitching out of his mind, and I don’t see him slowing down in this one. 

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Joe Ryan Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins 8:10 PM EST

Joe Ryan has been a frontline starter, delivering an 8–4 record with a 2.76 ERA across 17 starts and 104.1 innings, ranking 15th in ERA and 14th in total strikeouts (116) in MLB. His dominance is further reflected in a remarkable 0.89 WHIP—the 3rd-lowest in the league. On a per-nine-innings basis, he averages 10.01 K/9. I’ve always thought Ryan was a premier pitcher in this league, and his consistent performances are proving that right. I like him in this matchup going against the Pirates, who’ve been terrible at the plate, especially when playing on the road. Expect Ryan to deal. 

Dean Kremer Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins 5:05 PM EST

Dean Kremer has been a dependable yet streaky starter for Baltimore. He holds a 7–7 record with a 4.53 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 101.1 innings across 17 starts. His performances have alternated—he’s delivered multiple quality outings (nine starts with two or fewer runs allowed) and several rough ones (six starts allowing four or more runs). I can see Kremer struggling in this one. He’ll be up against this Marlins team that has been on fire on the road as of late. There are also great hitting conditions in Baltimore this time of year. This has the potential to be a blowup sta

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above