MLB Player Prop Picks 07/09/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Antonio Senzatela Over 3.5 Earned Runs
Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox 7:10 PM EST

Antonio Senzatela’s 2025 season has been a challenging one, marked by inconsistency and underperformance. Through mid-June, he has made 17 appearances (16 starts), posting a 3–11 record with a 6.69 ERA and a WHIP of 1.93 over roughly 80.2 innings pitched. His strikeout numbers have been notably low, with only 42 punchouts, translating to about 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while walking 31 batters, which puts him at a walk rate of around 3.5 per nine innings. These figures reflect a drop in effectiveness compared to prior seasons, especially in terms of strikeout ability and limiting base runners. The Red Sox have scored a combined 36 runs in their last 4 games and are seeing the ball very well right now. I don’t think this is a good spot for Senzatela to bounce back. 

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Andre Pallante Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardnials 7:45 PM EST

Andre Pallante has been a solid option in this St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation, logging 17 starts across 94.1 innings. He holds a 5–4 record, complemented by a 4.10 ERA and a solid 1.28 WHIP. His strikeout totals reached 63 with 31 walks, translating to approximately 15.8 K/9 and 7.8 BB/9, giving him a 2.0 K/BB ratio. Month-by-month splits show a steady presence: about 27.2 IP in April (ERA 4.15), stepping into May and June with consistent work of 27–29 innings each, and most recently delivering a strong 7-inning, zero-run outing in early July. Pallante has given up 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and seems to be in the best stretch of his season.

Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds 7:10 PM EST

Sandy Alcantara has experienced a challenging return in 2025 following Tommy John surgery. Over 17 starts and 86 innings, he’s posted a 4–8 record with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s struck out 67 batters (7.0 K/9) but also issued 35 walks,  leading to an elevated 1.48 WHIP overall . Splits paint a bleak picture: both lefties and righties have punished his pitches, owning ERAs in the mid-to-high 8s (8.93 vs. lefties, 8.28 vs. righties). When runners are on base, opponents hit him exceptionally hard, batting over .400, and his ERA climbs near 20. Contrastingly, with bases empty, Alcantara has been dominant, sporting a 1.16 ERA . I don’t think things get easier for Alcantara in this one, playing in Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB. I expect Alcantara to struggle once again in this one.