MLB Player Prop Picks 07/08/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 K’s
Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees 7:05 PM EST

Logan Gilbert has had a strong start to the 2025 MLB season, showcasing his development into one of the league’s premier strikeout pitchers. Through nine starts, he has compiled a 2–2 record with a 3.40 ERA and an exceptional 0.92 WHIP across 45.2 innings. His strikeout numbers are especially impressive, 67 total, translating to an elite 13.2 K/9 and roughly a 37% strikeout rate, while keeping walks low at just eight on the season. Despite allowing eight home runs, Gilbert has done an excellent job limiting overall contact and baserunners. Gilbert at logged 7+ K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts. He’s going against this Yankees lineup that has been shaky as of late. I expect Gilbert to have another strong game when it comes to a strikeout perspective. 

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Seth Lugo Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals 5:40 PM EST

Seth Lugo has been a steady presence in the Kansas City Royals’ rotation during the 2025 season, posting a 5–5 record with an impressive 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 88⅔ innings over 15 starts. While not a high-strikeout pitcher, he has recorded 76 strikeouts (approximately 7.7 K/9) to go along with 28 walks, showing solid command and pitch efficiency. His ability to limit damage has kept him among the more reliable arms in the league this year, especially when pitching at home, where he’s posted a 2.42 ERA compared to a 3.19 mark on the road. He’s failed to give up more than 1 run in his last 5 starts. Lugo has been on fire as of late and I don’t see him slowing down against a bad Pirates lineup.

Simeon Woods Richardson Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs 7:40 PM EST

Simeon Woods Richardson has pitched in a somewhat inconsistent first half of the 2025 season for the Minnesota Twins. Through 12 appearances and 11 starts, he posted a 3–4 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 58⅓ innings, during which he struck out 52 batters and issued 22 walks. Left-handed batters have been particularly problematic for him, hitting a combined .333 with an alarming 6.69 ERA over about 12 innings. Woods Richardson is coming off 2 great starts but I don’t like this matchup for him going against the Cubs. The Cubs have been one of the more consistent teams at the plate and have some dangerous lefties.