MLB Player Prop Picks 07/04/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Chris Paddack Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays 4:10 PM EST

Chris Paddack has appeared in 16 starts, compiling a 3–7 record with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 85.1 innings, during which he’s struck out 60 batters, a rate of about 6.3 K/9, and issued 24 walks (2.53 BB/9). Paddack’s season has been marked by inconsistency. He’s had flashes of strong performances, like striking out six over five innings of one-run ball against the Braves in April, but also suffered rough outings, most notably giving up nine runs in just 3.1 innings during his season debut against the White Sox. As of late, we’ve seen him go through one of these slumps, allowing 3+ runs in each of his last 4 starts. Now he has to face this Rays team that has been elite on the road this season, and it looks like hitting conditions when it comes to a weather perspective. 

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JP Sears Under 4.5 K’s
San Francisco Giants vs Athletics 10:05 PM EST

J.P. Sears has had a mixed season through mid‑2025, appearing in 16 starts and recording a 5–7 record with a 5.44 ERA over 81 innings, accompanied by a 1.33 WHIP and 63 strikeouts (7.0 K/9). Inconsistency has plagued his campaign. Over his last seven starts, he’s posted an 8.72 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 32 innings  . Home vs. road splits further highlight the disparity, with a 4.62 ERA away but a strugglesome 6.00 ERA at home over just 24 innings. He’s failed to log over 4 strikeouts in 4 of his last 6 outings, and now he has to face a Giants lineup that doesn’t strike out much to begin with. It’s unfortunate that a guy of Sears’ talent has to pitch in such a difficult environment, but the numbers don’t lie, and he just doesn’t have his best stuff when pitching in Sacramento. 

Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves 7:15 PM EST

Charlie Morton’s 2025 season with the Orioles has been a stark contrast to his past success, as the veteran’s struggles on the mound have continued into midseason. In 16 games, he posted a 4–7 record with a 5.63 ERA and inflated 1.57 WHIP, over 72 innings in which he recorded 77 strikeouts, 32 walks, and surrendered 10 homers. We did see Morton show some improvements in June, but he reverted to his old ways, giving up 3 earned runs in his last start. The Braves have been a completely different team when playing in Atlanta, and I just don’t think this is going to end well for Charlie Morton on Friday.

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