MLB Player Prop Picks 07/03/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Cade Horton Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs 8:05 PM EST

On May 10th, Horton made his Major League debut for the Cubs, earning his first win despite allowing three runs over four innings and fanning five batters. Through eight MLB appearances, he’s gone 3–1 with a 3.73 ERA, totaling 41 innings, 31 strikeouts, and allowing just four homers, with a 1.29 WHIP. His game logs feature several quality outings, including a strong debut and a six-strikeout six-inning performance on May 27th. However, he’s also had tougher days, such as surrendering seven earned runs over four innings against Houston on June 28th. It’s been up and down for Horton, but I love this matchup for him going against the Guardians, who’ve been horrible at the plate this season, and especially as of late. 

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Eury Perez Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins 6:40 PM EST

Eury Pérez’s 2025 season has been a cautious and gradual return from Tommy John surgery, marked by flashes of promise and some expected growing pains. Since rejoining the Miami Marlins’ rotation in early June, Pérez has made three starts, totaling 11⅔ innings. In that span, he’s compiled an 0–2 record with a 6.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, allowing eight earned runs on 12 hits while walking seven and striking out 11. Despite control concerns, Pérez has shown glimpses of his pre-injury dominance. In his June 9th season debut, he struck out five over three innings against Pittsburgh. I expect Perez to get better as the season progresses, and I think we’ll see a good outing from him in this one. This Twins team just isn’t in good form right now, and we’ve seen this team struggle when playing away from Minnesota. 

Dustin May Over 4.5 K’s
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox 10:10 PM EST

Dustin May has compiled a 4–5 record with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, tallying 72 strikeouts (8.24 K/9) against 32 walks (3.66 BB/9). May has shown flashes of dominance, such as striking out seven Rockies over six innings and striking out five on April 22nd against a strong Cubs lineup. He has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he does have good strikeout abilities, and he’s especially pitched well against some of the weaker lineups in the league. He has a dream matchup in this one, facing the White Sox, who’ve been horrible, especially at home.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above