MLB Player Prop Picks 07/01/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona D-Backs 9:40 PM EST

Zac Gallen has had a difficult 2025 season so far, struggling to replicate the consistency he showed in previous years. Through 17 starts, he holds a 5–9 record with an ERA hovering around 5.70 and a WHIP near 1.41. Over approximately 97 innings pitched, he’s recorded 88 strikeouts, translating to a strikeout rate of about 8.17 per nine innings. However, his walk rate has spiked to nearly 3.9 BB/9 (42 total walks), and he’s surrendered 19 home runs. Gallen has given up a combined 12 runs in his last two starts, and that was against two poor offenses (Rockies, White Sox). Until Gallen shows me something different, I’ll be looking to fade him.

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Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 Earned Runs 
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers 7:10 PM EST

Freddy Peralta has been a standout for the Brewers, posting an impressive 8–4 record with a 2.90 ERA across 17 starts. He’s struck out 98 batters, a strong 9.48 K/9, while issuing 34 walks (3.29 BB/9), and keeping a solid 1.13 WHIP. Splits data reveal Peralta’s ability to limit damage to both lefties and righties: left-handed hitters are batting .215 against him, while righties are at .200. His ERA splits are 2.37 vs. lefties and 3.29 vs. righties, both reflecting strong two-way effectiveness. He’s especially dominant with runners on base and in high-leverage situations, underscoring his reliability under pressure. He has another solid matchup going against the Mets, who’re ice cold at the moment. I expect Peralta and the Brewers’ pitching staff to take advantage of that. 

Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 K’s 
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins 6:40 PM EST

Edward Cabrera has made 13 starts, posting a 2–2 record with a 3.78 ERA over 64.1 innings, during which he’s struck out 69 batters and walked 29, resulting in a 1.37 WHIP. Advanced metrics are a mixed bag. His data highlights a strong 24.8% strikeout rate (above MLB average) and a walk rate of 10.2%, but his xERA sits at 4.15, higher than his actual ERA, suggesting he’s perhaps pitched better than expected so far. Cabrera is in great form right now, logging 5+ strikeouts in his last 5 starts, and he’s yet to give up over 2 runs in that span. The Twins just haven’t been the same team at the plate on the road, and I expect Cabrera to have another solid outing.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above