MLB Player Prop Picks 07/01/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Jacob DeGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers 7:05 PM EST

Jacob deGrom’s 2025 season has marked a highly successful return to form after recovering from multiple injuries, including two Tommy John surgeries. Now pitching for the Texas Rangers, deGrom has made around 15 starts, posting a strong 7–2 record with an ERA between 2.24 and 2.33 and a WHIP just under 1.00. Across approximately 88 innings, he’s struck out 87 batters while issuing only 18 to 20 walks, translating to an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio and maintaining a high level of efficiency. DeGrom has logged 7+ K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts, and I don’t see him slowing down in this one, going against the Orioles, who’ve struggled to hit the ball away from Baltimore. 

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Shane Smith Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 PM EST

Shane Smith has emerged as a bright rookie in Chicago’s rotation during the 2025 season. Through 15 starts and approximately 74 innings, he holds a 3–5 record with a solid 3.38 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts, equating to an 8.2 K/9 rate, while issuing 32 walks, translating to a 2.1 K/BB ratio. I’ve been a fan of Smith this season, but he’s currently in his worst stretch of the season, allowing 10 earned runs in his last 2 starts combined. Now he has his most difficult start yet, going against this Dodgers lineup. I think we will see Shane Smith return to his dominant ways sometime this season, but I just don’t think it’s going to be this start. 

Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins 6:40 PM EST

Joe Ryan has enjoyed a standout season, posting an 8–3 record with a 2.86 ERA and a WHIP of 0.89 over 91.1 innings across 15 starts. He’s struck out 104 batters (10.3 K/9) while issuing just 20 walks (2.0 BB/9), ranking among MLB’s best in both strikeout rate and walk rate. Ryan has been reliable both at home and on the road with 44.1 IP at home with a 2.84 ERA and 47.0 IP away with a 2.87 ERA, maintaining sub‑1.00 WHIPs in both venues. He’s logged 7+ strikeouts in his last 3 starts, and his coming off a very impressive 8 strikeout outing against the Mariners. He’s a guy I trust, and even though this Marlins team is hot, I expect Ryan to have a good outing.