George Kirby Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners 9:40 PM EST

George Kirby’s 2025 MLB season has been a tale of two stretches. After beginning the year on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, he returned to the Seattle Mariners rotation in late May. His first two starts were rough. Kirby gave up 11 earned runs across just 8.2 innings, resulting in an ERA of 11.42 by the end of May. However, things began to turn around in June. Over four starts that month, he pitched 22 innings with a much-improved ERA around 4.09, racking up 25 strikeouts. This is a great spot for Kirby to show why he’s still one of the better pitchers in this league. He’ll be back in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, a ballpark that he historically has played very well in, and he’s going against the Royals, who are in a bad slump right now and haven’t been able to hit the ball all season long. 

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Andrew Heaney Under 2.5 Earned Runs
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM EST

Over 16 starts and 86.1 innings pitched, Heaney holds a 3–7 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He’s struck out 64 batters while issuing 30 walks and allowing 14 home runs. His underlying metrics suggest a fairly accurate reflection of performance, with a FIP around 4.84 and a strikeout-to-walk profile that is decent but not elite. He began the season on a strong note, particularly in April, when he posted a stellar 1.71 ERA across five starts, allowing only five earned runs over 26.1 innings with 29 strikeouts. However, his performance has tailed off considerably since then. In June alone, he logged 25.2 innings with a 4.48 ERA, surrendering 20 earned runs and seven home runs, accounting for half his season total. He’s coming off his two worst starts of the season giving up 7 earned runs in back-to-back starts. With that being said, I think this spot sets up nicely for Heaney to bounce back. The Cardnials have struggled against left-handed pitching and have struggled away from St. Louis. Expect Heaney to look like the guy from the beginning of the season. 

Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 K’s
Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds 7:10 PM EST

Garrett Crochet has been dominant for the Boston Red Sox in the first half of the 2025 MLB season, emerging as one of the game’s elite starting pitchers. Over 17 starts and 109.1 innings pitched, he holds a 7–4 record with a spectacular 2.06 ERA, a stingy 1.02 WHIP, and a league-leading 135 strikeouts. His consistency is evident. Crochet has exceeded 10 strikeouts in four different outings, including a seven-inning, 10‑K gem against the Angels on June 24th in his last start and a career-high 12‑K performance versus Atlanta on June 1st. He has a favorable matchup in this one, going against the Reds, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. 

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above