Slade Cecconi Under 2.5 Earned Runs
St. Louis Cardnials vs Cleveland Guardians 7:10 PM EST

Slade Cecconi has made a solid leap following his mid‑December trade to Cleveland, posting a 3–3 record with a 3.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 37.1 innings across 7 starts. He’s struck out 37 batters and walked 12, resulting in a respectable K/9 around 9.0 and BB/9 around 3.0. Cecconi’s early start was rocky he opened 2025 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through mid‑May, but he’s improved in June, holding a 4.15 ERA in 30.1 innings and averaging nearly 5 strikeouts per start over his last seven outings. I like his matchup in this one going against the Cardnials who are a completely different team away from St Louis. 

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Lucas Giolito Under 5.5 K’s
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox 7:10 PM EST

It’s been an up-and-down season for Lucas Giolito after returning from that hamstring injury that kept him out to start the season. He holds a 3–1 record with a 4.63 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, striking out 42 batters. On the analytics front, his strikeout rate has dipped this season, sitting in the 32nd percentile among MLB starters, while his walk rate is around league average at 7.9%. Opponents are batting .307 against him with a .496 slugging percentage, well above MLB averages. He has looked better in the month of June, but this is a tough spot for him playing in Fenway in hitter-friendly conditions. I expect Gilito to come down to earth in this one.


Bryan Woo Over 5.5 K’s
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers 7:05 PM EST

Bryan Woo has anchored Seattle’s rotation with consistent excellence so far this season. Through 15 starts, he’s maintained a 6–4 record with a 3.12 ERA and an elite 0.94 WHIP, striking out 78 batters over 89.1 innings. His outings have featured both control and dominance. In his last start against Minnesota, he logged six innings with nine strikeouts, two earned runs, and just one walk. He has another favorable matchup going against the Rangers, who’ve been awful at the plate this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in almost every major offensive category.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above