David Peterson Under 2.5 Earned Runs
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM EST

David Peterson is putting together a breakout campaign in the 2025 MLB season, emerging as one of the most reliable arms in the Mets’ rotation. Through 14 starts, he holds a 5–2 record with a stellar 2.60 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 79.2 innings pitched. Statistically, Peterson has been dominant in some key splits. He holds left-handed hitters to a .206 batting average and a 0.978 WHIP, while righties have found more success, hitting .268 against him with a 1.491 WHIP. He’s coming off his worst start of the season giving up 5 earned runs against the Phillies. After a start like that, I want to back Peterson to have a bounce-back in this one. The Pirates have been awful at the plate this season, and they’ve been especially bad against lefties. Peterson should return back to his old form on Friday.

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Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres 7:10 PM EST

Nick Martinez has had a mixed 2025 season for the Cincinnati Reds, serving primarily as a starting pitcher with a few relief appearances. Through 17 games (15 starts), he’s posted a 4–8 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 86 innings pitched. He’s allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and is coming off a start where he got destroyed by the Twins, allowing 7 earned runs. Martinez’s game is extremely volatile, and going against a lineup like the Padres won’t be an easy task. The weather also aligns with great hitting conditions, and with this game being played at Great American Ballpark, I expect Martinez’s struggles to continue.

Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 K’s
Arizona D-Backs vs Miami Marlins 9:40PM EST

Merrill Kelly has been the most reliable arm in Arizona’s 2025 rotation, appearing in 15 starts and posting a 6–3 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 87 innings. Don’t get me wrong, Kelly has been great as of late, but I just don’t think this level of play is sustainable. The Marlins are coming into Arizona, and this team is on fire right now, winning a series against the Braves and just sweeping the Giants on the road. If they can have success hitting the ball at Oracle Park, I expect them to keep up that success now playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Chase Field.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above