In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 4, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers (48-39, 21-22 Away) won three consecutive series after defeating the Minnesota Twins (sweep), Pittsburgh Pirates, and Colorado Rockies, but lost to the New York Mets despite winning the opening game of that series. In the rubber match on Thursday, the Brewers fell short 3-2. Jose Quintana took the loss after allowing three runs on six hits with three strikeouts and no walks in 5.1 innings.

This season, the Brewers average 4.70 runs per game (8th in the MLB) on a .247/.323/.383 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Brewers’ staff has a 3.79 ERA (14th) and 1.28 WHIP (18th). Christian Yelich leads the Brewers with a .261 batting average, 17 home runs, and 61 RBI this season.

Quinn Priester will take the mound for the Brewers on Friday. The 24-year-old right-hander has a 6-2 record in 11 starts this year with a 3.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 78.0 innings.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins (39-46, 19-25 Home) went through their best period of the season, during which they recorded eight straight wins, sweeping the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, and defeating the Minnesota Twins in the process. In Game 3 of the series against Minnesota on Thursday, the Marlins won 4-1. Agustin Ramirez led the offense with two RBI, while Eury Perez got the first win of the season after allowing no runs on one hit with seven strikeouts and one walk across 6.0 innings of work.

This year, the Marlins average 4.24 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .254/.317/.390 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins’ staff has a 4.75 ERA (26th) and 1.35 WHIP (23rd). Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with a .283 batting average, 15 home runs, and 45 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Marlins is Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-8 in 16 starts this season, with a 6.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 80.0 innings.

Why the Brewers will beat the Marlins

The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 home games following a home win.
The Brewers have won six of their last seven games following a loss.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs against National League opponents following a win.
The Brewers have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine Friday games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Brewers’ last five night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Brewers’ last 12 night games against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five home games against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Marlins rank 26th in the league for ERA this season (4.75).
The Marlins rank 25th in the league for strikeouts this season (668).
The Brewers rank 8th in the league for runs scored this season (409).
The Brewers rank 23rd in the league for doubles this season (125).

Brewers vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. In this one, though, I am backing the Brewers because Sandy Alcantara is struggling this season. Alcantara is having the worst season of his career, and he could be traded soon. Sandy allowed multiple runs in all but one start this season, and surrendered 12 runs in his last three starts. Quinn Priester, on the other hand, has been impressive in June, posting a 1.98 ERA, and has kept the opponents below two runs in four of his previous five starts. At the moment, Priester is a way better pitcher and that’s why I am backing the Brewers.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: Brewers ML