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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 07/21/2025 Picks
Pick details
San Diego (54-45) vs Miami (46-52)
July 21, 2025 at 06:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Miami -130 — Over/Under: +8.5
The San Diego Padres and the Miami Marlins meet Monday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The San Diego Padres did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted. The Miami Marlins will start Eury Perez here, and Perez is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. This will be Perez’s first career start against the Padres.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to build on their 8-1 win over the Washington Nationals from Sunday’s series finale to sit at 54-45 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Padres Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight
Manny Machado has 109 hits including a team-high 23 doubles, 18 home runs, 60 RBIs and 8 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 97 hits with a team-high 16 home runs and 42 RBIs along with 22 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 107 hits with 17 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs and 36 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 65 hits with 7 home runs and 32 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 20 doubles and 16 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 51 RBIs as well this season.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Marlins have lost each of their last eight Monday games as favorites.
The underdogs have won four of the Marlins’ last five games.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 27 of their last 28 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games at LoanDepot Park.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
Manny Machado has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four night games.
Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against NL East opponents.
Jose Iglesias has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances after playing the previous day.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to rebound from a 7-4 loss at the hands of the Kansas City Royals in Sunday’s series finale to slip to 46-52 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Marlins Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped
Xavier Edwards has 96 hits, including 16 doubles and a team-high 16 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 78 hits with 20 doubles. Otto Lopez has 77 hits with 11 doubles and 11 home runs with 52 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 93 hits with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 21 home runs and 59 RBIs but also has 100 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 14 home runs, 21 doubles and 44 RBIs and Jesus Sanchez has chipped in 32 RBIs as well on the year.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Padres have lost each of their last eight games following a road win.
The Marlins have won each of their last six games against NL West opponents.
The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games following a home loss.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL East opponents following a road win.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against the Padres.
Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Padres’ last six night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Marlins’ last five games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
I’m on the Marlins here. I get the case to be made for the Padres, but Eury Perez is in solid form after a bit of a rough start to the year, and if you told me at this point in the season, Miami would be this close to .500, I might’ve thought you were crazy coming into the season. That being said, the Marlins are still playing well and the bullpen has been solid as well and I think that the Fish can get the job done in the series opener. Give me Miami here.