Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction 7/22/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 22nd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 49-54 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 25-27 home record and are coming off a 5-3 home win against the Marlins. They will face the White Sox and the Angels next.

The Houston Astros have a .241 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .326 batting average, leads the team in RBI with 75, and adds a team-high 33 home runs.

Peter Lambert (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Houston Astros, and he has an 8-5 record, 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 52-50 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 21-30 away record and are coming off a 3-5 road loss against the Astros. They will face the Padres and the Phillies next.

The Miami Marlins have a .252 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .408 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .332 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 60, adding a team-high 14 home runs.

Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Miami Marlins, and he has a 10-5 record, 3.89 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 22, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert      Record this season: 8-5      ERA: 3.03
• Home Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-0

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games.
• The Astros have won each of their last seven night games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last six Wednesday home games against NL East opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against the Marlins.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 10-5      ERA: 3.89
• Road Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Astros: 0-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have lost six of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 road games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games against AL West opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the last seven games between the Marlins and Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of Sandy Alcantara’s last eight appearances as a starter.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the last seven night games between the Marlins and Astros at Daikin Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four home games against NL opponents.
• Peter Lambert has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Peter Lambert has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances.
• Griffin Conine has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight games as underdogs.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his eight previous appearances against AL West opponents.
• Joe Mack has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (130) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (451).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (451).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).

Marlins vs Astros Prediction

The Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Marlins, having won their last five meetings in Houston.

In this Marlins vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -120 home favorites. The Marlins have been on a free fall lately with eight consecutive wins and they are simply unbackable right now, especially on the road. Peter Lambert has been in excellent form for the Astros with just two earned runs across his last three starts, while Alcantara has been weaker on the road for the Marlins and their offense has fallen off a cliff, as they average just 3.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. Take the Astros to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Houston Astros ML