In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Diamondbacks prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, June 28, at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins (35-45, 18-21 Away) are going through their best period of the season. They are coming from their first back-to-back series wins after beating the Braves and Giants, and are currently on a five-game winning run, their longest such streak of the year. Miami opened the series against Arizona with a 9-8 victory last night. Otto Lopez led the offense with three RBI, while Eury Perez pitched for 4.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing three runs on two hits with three strikeouts and three walks. Ronny Henriquez was credited with the win.

This season, the Marlins average 4.24 runs per game (18th in the MLB) on a .255/.317/.391 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins’ staff has a 4.88 ERA (26th) and 1.39 WHIP (25th). Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with a .277 batting average, 13 home runs, and 40 RBI this season.

Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins on Saturday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 4-8 record in 15 starts this year with a 6.69 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 74.0 innings.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (41-40, 20-19 Home) are back home from a three-series road trip, on which they lost to the Toronto Blue Jays and defeated the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox. The D-backs couldn’t complete a sweep of the White Sox as they lost Game 3, and then lost Game 1 of the current series against the Marlins, 9-8 on Friday. Geraldo Perdomo led the offense with three RBI, while Merrill Kelly took the loss after allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits with seven strikeouts and one walk in 5.0 innings.

This year, the Diamondbacks average 5.20 runs per game (3rd in the MLB) on a .255/.331/.449 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Diamondbacks’ staff has a 4.76 ERA (25th) and 1.34 WHIP (22nd). Eugenio Suarez leads the D-backs with a .254 batting average, 25 home runs, and 67 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks is Brandon Pfaadt, who is 8-5 in 16 starts this season, with a 5.49 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 80.1 innings.

Why the Marlins will cover

The Marlins have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Saturday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Marlins’ last three games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven day games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (421).
The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (17).
The Marlins rank T26th in the league for runs allowed this season (416).
The Marlins rank 25th in the league for strikeouts this season (623).

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including six of the last seven. This season, Arizona swept Miami in Florida and currently leads 3-1 following the Marlins’ win last night. I am backing the visitors to put up a fight and stay close in this one as well. They are starting Sandy Alcantara, who is way better than his numbers suggest. Although he’s having his worst season so far, Alcantara started to improve, and in June, he posted a 2.74 ERA. Three of Alcantara’s previous four starts were quality starts, while he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in the process. Brandon Pfaadt, on the other hand, played well in April but was disastrous in May, and he’s not much better in June. Pfaadt surrendered multiple runs in each of his last eight starts, and I am sure the Marlins, who are on the rise, will score 3+ off of him on Saturday. Back Miami to cover the run line.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: Marlins +1.5