Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 5/21/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, May 21st at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 29-20 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 1-3 and 0-2. In their game two loss, New York allowed just two runs in the fifth inning, but they couldn’t find any offense for the low-scoring loss. The Mets recorded four hits in the game, and they were led by Soto, who went 1-3 with a walk in the loss. New York started Holmes, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Kranick pitched the final two innings. 

Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Yankees, but won two out of three against the Pirates before that. New York has lost five of their last six games, and they are currently second in the NL East. The New York pitching staff has a 2.86 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 213 runs with a .245 batting average and a .328 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with nine home runs and 37 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor has added nine home runs and 28 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 3-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 43.1 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 25-25 this season after they won game two in this series by a score of 2-0 on Tuesday. Boston had plenty of baserunners early in the game, but they finally scored twice in the fifth, which was enough for the win. The Red Sox recorded five hits in the game, and they were led by Devers and Narvaez, who both had a solo home run in the win. Boston started Buehler, who pitched well prior to his ejection, while Whitlock picked up the win and Chapman got the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Braves and all three against the Tigers. Boston has won three of their last four games, and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 239 runs with a .253 batting average and a .325 on-base percentage this season. Alex Bregman has led Boston with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added 11 home runs and 27 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 4-3 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 63.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Mets 

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have lost each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against the Mets.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Mets at Fenway Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Mets’ last 10 games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Mets and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mets’ last nine games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Mets and Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four home games against NL East opponents.
• Alex Bregman has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last six games at Fenway Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents at Fenway Park.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as road underdogs.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Mets’ last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.

Mets vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston has won the first two games in this series, as New York continues to struggle at the plate, and the Red Sox will look to make it three in a row here. The Red Sox are 14-11 at home this year, while the Mets are 12-15 on the road. New York has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games, but it continues to have one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB. New York is starting Megill, who has allowed four earned runs in three straight starts. Boston is starting Crochet, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. This New York lineup has been brutal recently and will now have to deal with Crochet, who has been great. Take the Red Sox here.