Mets vs Phillies Prediction 9/10/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 10th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 76-69 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 0-1 and 3-9. In their game two loss, New York cut the deficit to 4-1 in the seventh, but their bullpen fell apart in the blowout loss. The Mets recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Soto, Vientos, and McNeil, who all had one RBI in the loss. New York started Manaea, who allowed five hits and four earned runs for the loss, while Hagenman allowed five earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Reds, but did win two out of three against the Tigers before that. New York has lost five of their last six games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 687 runs with a .250 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 33 home runs and 113 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 38 home runs and 94 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 11-7 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 147.0 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 85-60 this season after they won game two by a score of 9-3 on Tuesday evening. Philadelphia took the lead in the first inning and never looked back in the easy win. The Phillies recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Schwarber, who went 1-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Robertson, Banks, and Lazar all allowed one earned run each. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Marlins and two out of three against the Brewers. Philadelphia has won five of their last six games and they are first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 692 runs with a .259 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 50 home runs and 123 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 16 home runs and 65 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 12-5 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 176.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Phillies

The Mets have won five of their last seven games as underdogs.
The Phillies have lost four of their last five night games against the Mets following a home win.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts 

Seven of the Mets’ last eight night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Mets’ last five road games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies’ last four games against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Juan Soto has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last six games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction 

New York comes into this contest trying to snap their four game losing streak, as they continue to give up ground in the wild card race. The Mets are 31-42 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 47-23 at home. Philadelphia continues to mash the baseball and they are starting Sanchez, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last two outings. New York is going with Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Both of these pitchers have been rock solid, but I think the Mets have some value with the plus money. Take New York to win.