Mets vs Orioles Prediction 07/09/2025 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 9th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 53-39 this year after they won game one by a score of 7-6 in extra innings. New York trailed 6-2 in the seventh inning, but they tied the game in the eighth and won in the 10th. The Mets recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Lindor and Alonso, who both had two RBIs in the win. New York started Holmes, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Diaz got the win and Brazoban picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won two out of three against the Yankees and two out of three against the Brewers. New York has won five of their last six games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 409 runs with a .246 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 21 home runs and 75 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 21 home runs and 52 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 6-4 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 102.0 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles are 40-50 this season after they lost game one by a score of 7-6 on Tuesday night. Baltimore led 1-0 and 6-2, but their bullpen fell apart and they couldn’t score in the 10th for the loss. The Orioles recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Holliday, O’Hearn, and Laureano, who all had two RBIs in the loss. Baltimore started Young, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings, while Cano picked up the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles swept the Braves in three games, but lost two out of three against the Rangers before that. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.94 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .269 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 377 runs with a .239 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with 13 home runs and 41 RBIs, while Jackson Holliday has added 12 home runs and 38 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Tomoyuki Sugano, who is 6-5 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 93.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Mets
The Mets have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
The Orioles have won each of their last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
The Orioles have covered the run line in 17 of their last 18 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
The Orioles have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents.

Why the Mets will beat the Orioles
The Orioles have lost each of their last six games against National League opponents following a home loss.
The Mets have won each of their last six Wednesday games against the Orioles.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites after going to extra innings.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Wednesday games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts
Each of the Mets’ last seven games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Eleven of the Orioles’ last 13 home games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last nine night games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Mets’ last 12 night games.

Mets vs Orioles Prediction 
New York was able to steal game one in this series with a crazy comeback on Tuesday and they are battling the Phillies for first in the NL East. The Mets are 20-25 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 19-23 at home. Baltimore continues to be last in the division and they are starting Sugano, who has allowed 13 earned runs and 19 hits over his last 9.2 innings. New York is starting Peterson, who has allowed 1, 5, and 5 earned runs in his last three starts. I think we are going to see another higher scoring game, so take the over here.