Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 07/09/2025 Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, July 9^th at the Kauffman Stadium in the third game of this series, with the Royals having the 2-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Prediction. We will examine:
The Kansas City Royals recent form and player performance
The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent betting trends in games played between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals game

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royalshave a 45-48 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL Central. The Royalshave a 22-24 home record and are 36-56 in over/under. They are coming off 4-3 home victory over the Pirates, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 games and are playing the Mets and the Marlins next.

The Royals have a .244 batting average this season, .299 OBP and .371 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Royals with 108 hits, while Maikel Garcia is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in RBI, with 56, adding a team-high 14 home runs.

Kris Bubic (L) is the projected starter for the Royals, and he has a 7-6 record, 2.36 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 38-55 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 12-34 road record, and are 37-53 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 road defeat by the Royals, and have five consecutive losses. Under is 7-1 in their last 8 games and are playing the Twins and the White Sox next.

The Pirates have a .230 batting average this season, .301 OBP and .341 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 77 hits, and a team-high 46 RBI. Andrew McCutchen is the team’s best hitter with a .258 batting average.

Bailey Falter (L) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 6-4 record, 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

The home team has won each of the Pirates’ last 13 games.
The Pirates have lost each of their last seven road games.
The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday night games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
The Royals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
The Royals have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games.
The Royals have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Wednesday games as favorites.
The Royals have won the first inning in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

The Royals have lost 11 of their last 13 games as home favorites.
The Pirates have won nine of their last 10 Wednesday games as underdogs.
The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games following a home win.
The Pirates have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Wednesday games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Eight of the Royals’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last six Wednesday games at Kauffman Stadium.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six Wednesday games against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Royals rank 30th in the league for walks this season (219).
The Royals rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (69).
The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (64).
The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.341).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

The Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 overall meetings against the Royals, but the Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 visits in Kansas City. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.
In this Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, the Royals are coming as -200 home favorites. The Royals are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, and are facing a Pirates team that has been atrocious on the road. Both pitchers have been excellent so far, with a combined 6.05 ERA, and both teams have the two worst offenses in the league. They are even weaker against lefties, averaging just 6.4 runs per game combined against left-handed pitching. The Royals also have the 6^th-best bullpen in the league, and both teams are 12-3 to the under in their last 15 games combined. Take the under 8.5 in this one.