Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 5/19/25 MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Monday in MLB action from Steinbrenner Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Colton Gordon here, and Gordon is 0-0 with a 6.23 ERA and 3 strikeouts this season. This will be Gordon’s first career start against the Rays. Ryan Pepiot will get the nod for the Rays here, and Pepiot is 2-5 with a 3.93 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. This will be Pepiot’s first career start against the Astros.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to build on their 4-3 win over the Texas Rangers to improve their record to 24-22 on the year. After this series, the Astros will head home for a series against the Seattle Mariners.

Astros Looking For Some Consistency After Earning Series Split

Jose Altuve has 42 hits, including 4 home runs and 14 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 52 hits with 6 homers and 23 RBIs with 6 stolen bases, while Yordan Alvarez has 4 doubles and 18 RBIs with 21 strikeouts as well. Jake Meyers has 6 doubles as well, and Christian Walker has also accrued a team-high 51 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 3 stolen bases, while Jake Meyers has a team-high 7 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has a team-high 7 home runs with 24 RBIs of his own, and Cam Smith has contributed 3 homers and 12 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Rays have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as home favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jeremy Pena has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last eight games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Astros as underdogs against the Rays.
• Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances with the Astros as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-1 loss at the hands of the Miami Marlins last time out to fall to 21-25 on the year. After this series, the Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays to town for a division series.

Rays Looking For Consistency After Alternating Wins & Losses In 8 Straight

Jonathan Aranda has 43 hits with a team-high 9 doubles, 6 home runs, and 21 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 35 hits with 7 homers and 24 RBIs as well, while Junior Caminero has 39 hits with 6 doubles, a team-high 8 home runs, and 20 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 42 hits with 8 doubles, 6 homers, and 24 RBIs, and Kameron Misner has 31 hits with 7 doubles, 4 homers, and 13 RBIs as well, while Christopher Morel has a team-high 48 strikeouts this season. Jose Caballero has 12 stolen bases, while Taylor Walls has 7 stolen bases, and Chandler Simpson has 9 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last nine road games following a win.
• The Rays have won each of their last four games following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last five games against the Astros following a loss.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays’ last three games.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Single in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Monday appearances.
• Ha-Seong Kim has scored a run in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Caballero ranks T7th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Astros and Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Fourteen of the Astros’ last 16 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I’m on the over here. I don’t know how much I trust Gordon in the hitter-friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field, and the Astros still have a potent lineup in their own right, which could be problematic for Ryan Pepiot considering the issues he has had with giving up hard contact at home so far this season in that minor league park. All in all, I think this ends up being a high-scoring game with both starters getting chased early. Give me the over.