Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 9/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Astros vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 23rd in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 73-84 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 40-36 home record and are coming off a 0-7 home loss against the Astros. They will face the Angels next.

The Seattle Mariners have a .231 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .379 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average, adding a team-high 76 RBI and a team-high 26 home runs.

George Kirby (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 9-11 record, 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 78-79 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL West. They have a 39-37 away record and are coming off a 7-0 road win against the Mariners. They will face the Angels next.

The Houston Astros have a .240 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .314 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 102 and adding a team-high 41 home runs.

Ethan Pecko (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1-0 record, 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: September 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season: 9-11      ERA: 4.24
• Home Record: 6-5
• Last 5 against Astros: 3-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last six night games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL opponents following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in four of their last five games at T-Mobile Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ethan Pecko      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 3.77
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Mariners: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last six road games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last six night games against AL opponents following a home loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 home games against AL opponents.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight night games against AL opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Mariners’ last 13 night games against AL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 14 of the Astros’ last 15 games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last six games between the Astros and Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in three of the Mariners’ last four Wednesday night games at T-Mobile Park.
• George Kirby has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Mariners as favorites against the Astros.
• George Kirby has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Dominic Canzone has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 17 night games.
• Randy Arozarena ranks 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.379) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 games as underdogs.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.314) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (198).
• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for hits this season (1206).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for steals this season (47).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (631).

Astros vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and have won two of their last three meetings in Seattle.

In this Astros vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -145 home favorites. I like the Astros to keep rolling in this one after a shutout win yesterday. They are the only ones with something to play for, as the Mariners are on the verge of elimination. Kirby has been in bad form, having given up 3+ runs in five of his last seven starts, while Pecko has given up one run in each of his last three games played. The Mariners’ bats have been ice-cold, scoring just 2 runs per game against righties in their last 5, so I like the Astros as road dogs in this one. Get the Astros for plus money.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Houston Astros ML