Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 4/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, April 11th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 5-9 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the AL West. They have a 4-4 home record and are coming off a 9-6 home win against the Astros. Their previous three games were a 0-3, a 2-3, and a 1-2 road loss against the Rangers.

The Mariners have a .190 batting average this season, .297 OBP and .311 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 2.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Brendan Donovan is the team’s best hitter with a .316 batting average. Cole Young leads the team in RBI with 8, and Luke Raley adds a team-high 3 home runs.

Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 0-0 record, 2.79 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 6-8 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL West. They have a 1-6 away record and are coming off a 6-9 road loss against the Mariners. Their previous three games were a 1-9, a 1-5, and a 7-9 road loss against the Rockies.

The Astros have a .270 batting average this season, .372 OBP and .449 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 6.32 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .341 batting average, also adding a team-high 5 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 13.

Lance McCullers Jr. (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1-0 record, 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: April 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 2.79
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last 11 home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Astros have lost each of their last five games.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 16 night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Astros’ last five games.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in each of their last three home games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against the Astros.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against the Astros.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr.      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 3.27
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Mariners: 1-0

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Astros’ last eight games.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Saturday road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last nine games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mariners’ last eight games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Astros’ last 12 games at T-Mobile Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight night games between the Astros and Mariners at T-Mobile Park.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Randy Arozarena has hit a home run in three of the Mariners’ last five home games against the Astros.
• Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in 10 of his 12 previous home appearances against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last seven games against opponents that held a losing record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Lance McCullers Jr. has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 appearances against the Mariners.
• Christian Walker has hit at least one home run in six of his last eight road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against the Mariners after playing the previous day.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.190).
• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.311).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (85).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (35).

Astros vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Astros and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Seattle.  

In this Astros vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -150 home favorites. The Astros have been struggling mightily with five consecutive wins and have at least 9 earned runs in four of their last five games. McCullers came back to earth after a quality start to the season while Castillo has been solid for the Mariners and both of his home starts against the Astros last season were shutouts. The Astros have the worst bullpen in baseball right now and the Mariners are better against right-handed pitching. Take the Mariners to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Seattle Mariners ML