Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9/12/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Braves Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12th at the Truist Park the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 65-81 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL East. The Braves have a 35-37 home record and 65-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 home defeat by the Cubs, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Nationals and the Tigers next.

The Braves have a .242 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .391 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 151 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 81, and in home runs with 23.

Hurston Waldrep (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4-0 record, 1.33 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 79-68 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Astros have a 36-36 road record and 66-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-6 road defeat by the Blue Jays, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Under is 4-0 in their last 4 games and are playing the Rangers and the Mariners next.

The Astros have a .252 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .399 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 143 hits, adding a team-high 24 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .300 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 76. 

The Astros have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 12, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Hurston Waldrep      Record this season: 4-0      ERA: 1.33
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Astros: –

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Astros’ last four games at Truist Park.
• The Astros have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against the Astros.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against the Astros.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The road team has won each of the last seven games between the Astros and Braves.
• The Braves have lost seven of their last eight games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a loss.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have won the first inning in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Astros’ last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last nine night games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Astros’ last nine night games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Austin Riley has recorded a Double in each of the Braves’ last three games against the Astros.
• Jarred Kelenic has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 home appearances against AL opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three night games.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 13 road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.300) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 4th in the league for walks this season (508).
• The Braves rank 26th in the league for steals this season (73).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1387).
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.231).

Astros vs Braves Prediction

The Braves have won their last three meetings against the Astros, but the Astros have won their last four visits in Atlanta. Under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Astros vs Braves Prediction, the Astros are coming as -135 road favorites. Both teams have been struggling lately, but the Braves are putting Hurston Waldrep on the mound, who has been elite this season, as he did not have more than one earned run in his six starts before his last one, where he gave up two. The Braves are playing their third straight series at home, and have been in Atlanta for a week now, while the Astros are playing their third consecutive series on the road. I like the Braves as home dogs in this one, so take the Atlanta Braves and the plus money in this one.