Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox meet Friday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send out Casey Mize for the start here and Mize is 14-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 131 strikeouts this season. In his career, Mize is 0-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 14 strikeouts against the Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will trot out Kyle Harrison for the start here and Harrison is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 32 strikeouts this season. This will be Harrison’s first career start against Detroit.

Detroit Tigers Recap

The Detroit Tigers come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over Cleveland last time out to sit at 86-73 this season.

Tigers Snap 8-Game Losing Streak, Still Fighting For AL Central

Spencer Torkelson has 133 hits along with a .240 batting average including 31 home runs, 27 doubles and 78 RBIs. Kerry Carpenter also has 26 home runs and 62 RBIs while Riley Greene has 155 hits with 31 doubles, 36 home runs and 111 RBIs but also has a team-high 198 strikeouts as well this season. Dillon Dingler has 13 home runs and 57 RBIs and Zack McKinstry’s added 23 doubles, 11 triples, 12 home runs and 49 RBIs of his own along with 117 hits as well this season. Javier Baez has added 103 hits and 17 doubles as well as 11 home runs and 53 RBIs this season. Colt Keith also has 106 hits with 22 doubles, 13 home runs and 45 RBIs.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to rebound from their 6-1 loss at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays last time out to sit at 87-72 on the year. 

Red Sox Heading To Playoffs With Momentum

Alex Bregman has 117 hits including 27 doubles along with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 161 hits with 25 home runs, 96 RBIs and 31 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 157 hits with 40 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs, 82 RBIs and a team-high 24 stolen bases. Roman Anthony’s added 75 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 32 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 22 home runs with 69 RBIs and 6 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 16 homers, 32 doubles, 3 triples, 62 RBIs and 19 stolen bases this season.

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Harrison      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 3.58
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Tigers: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine Friday night games against the Tigers.
• The Tigers have lost each of their last six road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last six home games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize      Record this season: 14-6      ERA: 3.91
• Road Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the Tigers’ last nine games.
• The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Tigers’ last nine games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Friday games as home favorites.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last eight games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Tigers’ last six road games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Tigers and Red Sox.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three games as favorites.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous home appearances against the Tigers.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Casey Mize has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents.
• Parker Meadows has recorded at least one hit in each of his 15 previous appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Kerry Carpenter has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Casey Mize has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (317).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1390).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (60).
• The Tigers rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (36).

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox here. I get the case to be made for Detroit who has everything to fight for here as they’re not just at risk of losing the AL Central, but potentially falling out of the playoffs entirely. However, Casey Mize has been hittable and the Red Sox have been hitting righties well as of late, while the Tiers have not been good against lefties and while Kyle Harrison isn’t the most reliable of options, I think he’ll be good enough here to get the Red Sox the W. Give me Boston.