Detroit Tigers Riley Greene celebrates with his teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Twins at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, June 28, 2025.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction 07/04/2025 Picks

Pick details

Detroit (54-34) vs Cleveland (40-45)

July 4, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Cleveland +105 — Over/Under: +8

(Get latest betting odds)

The Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians meet Friday in MLB action from Progressive Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send out Reese Olson for the start here and Olson is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 51 strikeouts this season. In his career, Olson is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 7 strikeouts against Cleveland. Slade Cecconi will get the start for Cleveland here and is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 42 strikeouts this season. This will be Cecconi’s second career start against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Recap

The Detroit Tigers come into this game looking to rebound from an 11-7 loss at the hands of the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 54-34 on the year. After this series, the Tigers will head home for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tigers Drop Back-To-Back Games

Spencer Torkelson has 69 hits along with a .234 batting average including a team-high 19 home runs, 19 doubles and 55 RBIs. Kerry Carpenter also has 16 home runs and 32 RBIs while Riley Greene has 97 hits with 21 doubles, 21 home runs and 69 RBIs but also has a team-high 110 strikeouts as well this season. Dillon Dingler has 8 home runs and 34 RBIs and Zack McKinstry’s added 12 doubles, 8 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs of his own along with 76 hits as well this season. Javier Baez has added 69 hits and 13 doubles as well as 9 home runs and 37 RBIs this season.

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

The Guardians have lost each of their last seven games.
The Tigers have won each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games at Progressive Field following a road loss.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against the Tigers following a road loss.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

Riley Greene has hit at least one home run in three of the Tigers’ last four games as favorites.
Matt Vierling has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents.
Riley Greene ranks T6th in the league in Hits (97) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at the hands of the Chicago Cubs last time out to sit at 40-45 on the year. After this series, the Guardians will head on the road for a series against the Houston Astros.

Guardians Lose 7 In A Row

Steven Kwan has 94 hits as part of a .295 batting average and 6 home runs, 18 doubles and 26 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 55 hits with 11 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs and 33 RBIs as well this year. Gabriel Arias has 17 doubles but also 88 strikeouts and Manzardo has 71 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 6 home runs and 31 RBIs and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 13 home runs and 38 RBIs. Carlos Santana has also added 67 hits with 10 home runs and 38 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

The Guardians have won each of their last nine Friday night games against the Tigers.
The Tigers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Guardians following a loss.
The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Lane Thomas has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Carlos Santana has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against the Tigers.
Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Jose Ramirez ranks T9th in the league in Steals (21) this season.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Tigers’ last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Guardians’ last four games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction

I’m on the Tigers here. I just can’t in good conscience back the Guardians in their current form as Cleveland just can’t seem to string any sort of consistent offense together and I don’t expect that to change here all of a sudden. The Tigers are the better team that just had a flat ending to their series against the Nationals, but I expect Detroit to bounce back in this one. Give me Detroit here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Detroit -125

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