Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction 07/09/2025 Picks

The Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds meet Wednesday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will start Sandy Alcantara here and Alcantara is 4-8 with a 7.01 ERA and 67 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Reds, Alcantara is 2-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 39 strikeouts. Andrew Abbott will get the start for the Reds here and is 7-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 78 strikeouts this season. In his career, Abbott is 0-1 with an 11.88 ERA and 11 strikeouts against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to build on their 12-2 win over the Reds from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 42-48 on the year. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Marlins Win 7 Of Their Last 10 Games

Xavier Edwards has 82 hits including 9 doubles and a team-high 15 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 76 hits with 20 doubles. Otto Lopez has 68 hits with 9 doubles and 9 home runs with 44 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 80 hits with 13 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs but also has 93 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 13 home runs, 15 doubles and 37 RBIs and Jesus Sanchez has chipped in 29 RBIs as well on the year.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

The Marlins have won each of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
The Reds have lost each of their last eight Wednesday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Marlins’ last 15 games.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games after playing the previous day.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL Central opponents.
Otto Lopez has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances after playing the previous day.
Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 11 games as underdogs against NL opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Marlins on Tuesday to sit at 46-46 on the year. After this series, the Reds will take on the Colorado Rockies at home.

Reds Drop Four Straight

Elly De La Cruz has 96 hits with 18 home runs, 60 RBIs, 15 doubles and 22 stolen bases while TJ Friedl has 92 hits with 14 doubles, 8 home runs and 31 RBIs with 9 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 68 hits with 16 doubles and 37 RBIs while Spencer Steer has 10 home runs and 37 RBIs and Matt McLain has added 9 homers, 31 RBIs and 12 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 17 doubles as well this season.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

The Reds have won six of their last seven home games following a home loss.
The Marlins have lost four of their last five games against NL Central opponents following a win.
The Reds have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against the Marlins following a home loss.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Jose Trevino has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances at Great American Ball Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Jose Trevino has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
Connor Joe has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Steals (22) this season.

Total Runs Facts

Six of the Marlins’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Fifteen of the Reds’ last 19 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m backing the Reds in this one. I get the case to be made for the Fish here, after looking so strong in the first two games of the series, but the Reds have their ace on the bump here and I just think this is a good spot for Cincinnati to salvage something against a starter in Alcantara who has really struggled away from home for much of the year. Give me Cincinnati in this one.