Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 5/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 4th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 22-12 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 14-5 home record and are coming off an 8-4 home win against the Diamondbacks. Their previous three games were a 2-0 win and a 6-5 win at home against the Diamondbacks, and a 5-4 win on the road against the Padres.

The Cubs have a .261 batting average this season, .353 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 26. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 8 home runs.

Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-0 record, 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-14 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. They have a 10-6 away record and are coming off a 0-1 loss on the road against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 7-17 loss and a 1-9 loss on the road against the Pirates, and a 6-4 win at home against the Rockies.

The Reds have a .217 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 25. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 9 home runs.

Chase Petty (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds and last season he had a 0-3 record, 19.50 ERA and 3.67 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: May 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera      Record this season: 3-0      ERA: 3.06
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 11 home games.
• The Reds have lost each of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Petty      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Road Record: –
• Last 5 against Cubs: –

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last six Monday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Cubs.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Reds’ last 12 games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against the Reds.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Monday appearances at Wrigley Field.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in two of the Reds’ last three games against the Cubs.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 13 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.353).
• The Cubs rank T1st in the league for walks this season (155).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (244).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.217).

Reds vs Cubs Prediction

The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Cubs but are 2-3 in their last 5 visits in Chicago. Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Reds vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -210 home favorites. The Cubs have been red-hot with five consecutive wins and have a huge pitching advantage with Cabrera on the mound. They also have the second-best offense in baseball and a better bullpen and are facing a Reds team that got swept by the Pirates by 0-3 wins, having allowed 29 earned runs in that span. Take the Cubs on the runline in this one for a comfortable home victory.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5