Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction 9/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 4th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 71-70 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 42-27 home record and are coming off a 3-7 road loss against the Royals. They will face the Mets and the Dodgers next.

The Miami Marlins have a .248 batting average this season, .326 OBP, and .399 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the Marlins’ best hitter with a .302 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 62. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 23 home runs.

Janson Junk (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, with a 6-8 record, 4.11 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 79-62 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 38-31 road record and are coming off a 2-1 home win against the Brewers. They will face the Brewers and the Pirates next.

The Chicago Cubs have a .251 batting average this season, .339 OBP, and .431 slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs’ best hitter with a .280 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 93, adding a team-high 39 home runs.

Shota Imanaga (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, with an 8-10 record, 4.01 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: September 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk      Record this season: 6-8      ERA: 4.11
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Marlins’ last eight games.
• The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a home win.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shota Imanaga      Record this season: 8-10      ERA: 4.01
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday home games.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Marlins’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last 10 games against NL Central opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Cubs’ last 11 games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Janson Junk has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his six previous Friday appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
• Heriberto Hernandez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Otto Lopez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (166) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Michael Conforto has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last seven games.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (39) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (30).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (146).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (753).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (198).

Cubs vs Marlins Prediction

The Cubs are 6-3 in their last 9 meetings against the Marlins and have won their last two visits in Miami.

In this Cubs vs Marlins Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -130 road favorites. I like the Marlins as home dogs in this matchup, as Janson Junk has been in excellent form, having given up just two runs across his last three starts and has been better at home with a 3.62 ERA. On the flip side, Imanaga has been struggling, having given up 13 runs combined in three of his last four starts and Chicago’s bullpen has been terrible lately, posting a 7.11 ERA in their last 10 games. Take the Marlins at home for plus money.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Miami Marlins ML