May 12, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA;  Boston Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (43) tags Washington Nationals  Jacob Young (30) out to end the game and beat the Washington Nationals at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction 07/04/2025 Picks

Pick details

Boston (43-45) vs Washington (37-50)

July 4, 2025 at 11:05 AM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Washington +1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5

(Get latest betting odds)


The Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals meet Friday in MLB action at Nationals Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction. This article will include a Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Pick.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 43-45 on the year and play the Rockies and Rays next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .251 on the season, have a .323 OBP, and a .422 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Jarren Duran leads the Boston Red Sox with 92 hits and 39 RBI, while Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela have combined for 151 hits and 80 RBI. 

Lucas Giolito gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA and 51 strikeouts this season. This will be Giolito’s first career game against the Washington Nationals.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 37-50 on the year and play the Cardinals and Brewers next. The Washington Nationals are batting .247 on the season, have a .313 OBP, and a .393 slugging percentage. The Washington Nationals pitching staff has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. James Wood leads the Washington Nationals with 96 hits and 67 RBI while CJ Abrams and Nathaniel Lowe have combined for 161 hits and 89 RBI.

Michael Soroka gets the ball for the Washington Nationals, and he is 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. This will be Soroka’s second career game against the Boston Red Sox.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

The Nationals have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games as road favorites.
The Nationals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
The Nationals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL East opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

The Nationals have lost each of their last five day games following a win.
The Red Sox have won each of their last four games against NL East opponents following a loss.
The Nationals have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine home games against teams that held a losing record.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three day games at Nationals Park against American League opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

Jacob Young has recorded a Double in three of his four previous home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Michael Soroka has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against AL opponents.
Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL East opponents.
Paul DeJong has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Red Sox.
James Wood ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Trevor Story has recorded a Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five games.
Lucas Giolito has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite.
Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Friday appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances.

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction

The Red Sox need a win to stop the bleeding, and Giolito has been respectable this season, which includes allowing nine earned runs in his last 26.2 innings. Giolito has also been great through 29.1 innings, where he has a 2.15 ERA and .184 allowed batting average. Soroka has been hittable this season, and the Nats have lost four straight games he’s pitched. The Nationals haven’t won three straight games since May 29-31. I’ll roll with the Red Sox in this early Friday contest.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Boston Red Sox

Need More? Get Premium Picks

Hot Cappers this week

Latest Picks & Game Previews

  • Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction 07/11/2025 Wimbledon Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Prediction 07/11/2025 Wimbledon Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • MLB Player Prop Picks 07/11/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

    July 11, 2025

  • Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Rays vs Red Sox Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Mets vs Royals Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • Guardians vs White Sox Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

    July 11, 2025

  • MLB Player Prop Picks 07/11/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

    July 11, 2025