Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction 8/24/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, August 23rd in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 67-64 record this season and sit in 3rd place in the NL East. They have a 41-25 home record and are coming off a 6-2 home win against the Nationals. They will face the Nationals and the Royals next.

The Miami Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .326 OBP, and .402 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the Marlins’ best hitter with a .306 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 58. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 19 home runs.

Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, holding a 13-8 record, 3.46 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 71-59 record this season and sit in 3rd place in the AL East. They have a 37-27 road record and are coming off a 5-4 home win against the Giants. They will face the Yankees and the Mariners next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .251 batting average this season, .324 OBP, and .407 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’s best hitter with a .289 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 78, adding a team-high 26 home runs.

Ranger Suarez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, holding a 5-3 record, 3.41 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: August 24, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 13-8      ERA: 3.46
• Home Record: 6-3
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as road favorites following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games following a win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez      Record this season: 5-3      ERA: 3.41
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: 3-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 16 night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last four games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 10 of the Red Sox’s last 11 road games against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games as underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in 16 of his last 17 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 10 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (155) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Mickey Gasper has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against the Marlins.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 15 road games against NL East opponents.
• Willson Contreras ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.392) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (28).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (132).
• The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for doubles this season (238).
• The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (126).

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Marlins, having won their last three visits in Miami.

In this Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -130 road favorites. I like the Red Sox in this one, as they have both a better offense and the best bullpen in baseball. Suarez has been elite on the road with a 3-1 record and 2.75 ERA and even though Alcantara has been in good form, the Marlins have been weaker against lefties and scoring just 3 runs per game against southpaws in their last 10 games. Take the Red Sox in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Boston Red Sox ML