Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 3/26/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Cincinnati Reds meet Thursday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Garrett Crochet for the start here and Crochet was 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts last season. Cincinnati will start Andrew Abbott here and Abbott was 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA and 149 strikeouts last season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into the 2026 season looking to take another step forward after finishing the 2025 campaign with an 89-73 record, making the playoffs for the first time since 2021 but getting bounced in the AL Wild Card in a heartbreaking three-game series against the New York Yankees. A shocking mid-season trade that sent Rafael Devers to the Giants defined the narrative of 2025, but the core of Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu at the dish and Garrett Crochet in the rotation give the Red Sox plenty of optimism going forward as long as that core can stay healthy, but Triston Casas is slated to miss time early on and there are injury concerns around Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval early as well. The Red Sox said goodbye to star infielder Alex Bregman in free agency but replaced that production by trading for veteran catcher Willson Contreras and infielder Caleb Durbin. The addition of Ranger Suarez on a five-year deal and the trade for Sonny Gray bolster the rotation, but the loss of Tanner Houck to season-ending surgery hurts when the Red Sox were trying to roll with the times in an evolving AL East.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into the 2026 season looking to build on a resilient 2025 campaign that saw them finish 83-79 and clinch the final National League Wild Card spot on the last day of the season. Despite becoming the first team in over a decade to make the postseason with 83 or fewer wins, the Reds’ stay was short-lived, as they were swept in two games by the eventual champion Dodgers. The star power of Elly De La Cruz and a core featuring Spencer Steer and Matt McLain remains the core of the roster, but the team is already facing an uphill battle as ace Hunter Greene is sidelined until mid-summer following elbow surgery and Nick Lodolo is set to start the year on the injured list with a recurring blister. Only time will tell if the Reds can replicate their success and keep it rolling going into 2026 with the NL Central seemingly as competitive as it’s been in some time.

Boston Red Sox @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: March 26, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Home Record: –
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have won three of the Red Sox’s last four games at Great American Ball Park.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Reds’ last 10 games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Garrett Crochet      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Road Record: –
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-1

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six road openers.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six road openers.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as road favorites.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against AL opponents.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games against AL opponents.
• Eugenio Suarez ranked 5th in the league in Home Runs (49) last season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against the Reds.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Garrett Crochet ranked 1st in the league for total Strikeouts (255) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds ranked 7th in the league for opponent batting average last season (.233).
• The Reds ranked 7th in the league for hits allowed last season (1260).
• The Red Sox ranked 1st in the league for doubles last season (324).
• The Red Sox ranked 4th in the league for hits last season (1414).

Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox here. Great American historically can be a bit of an equalizer when it comes to pitching, but Crochet has been elite going back to last year and I think the Red Sox are going to win a lot of games with him on the bump this season. Abbott is a solid pitcher, but the Reds have had issues backing him up in these starts at home, and I think that Boston draws first blood to start the year. Give me Boston.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Boston -150