Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, September 5th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 69-73 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 34-36 home record and are coming off a 0-1 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Guardians and the Blue Jays next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .235 batting average this season, .316 OBP, and .395 slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the Orioles’ best hitter with a .267 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 94, adding a team-high 33 home runs.

Chris Bassitt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, with a 6-4 record, 4.97 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 77-65 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 42-31 road record and are coming off a 1-0 road win against the Orioles. They will face the Angels and the Royals next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .249 batting average this season, .323 OBP, and .407 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’ best hitter with a .282 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 79, adding a team-high 26 home runs.

Sonny Gray (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, with a 16-4 record, 2.82 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: September 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt      Record this season: 6-4      ERA: 4.97
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-4

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five Saturday night games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have won each of their last four Saturday night games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last six games.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against AL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray      Record this season: 16-4      ERA: 2.82
• Road Record: 9-3
• Last 5 against Orioles: 2-1

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven home games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games as road favorites against the Orioles.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 Saturday road games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox’s last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Orioles.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Red Sox’s last four night games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his 13 previous home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Coby Mayo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances against the Red Sox.
• Pete Alonso ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Mickey Gasper has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four night games.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in nine of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Saturday appearances in night games.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Sonny Gray ranks T1st in the league for Wins (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1305).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (526).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (259).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (410).

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Orioles and have won their last four visits in Baltimore.

In this Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -140 road favorites. I like the Red Sox to keep rolling with Sonny Gray on the mound, who is the far better pitching option in this matchup than Chris Bassitt. Gray has a 9-2 record and 2.87 ERA on the road and will face a struggling Orioles offense that scores just 2.5 runs against righties in their last 5 games, and as a result, they have four consecutive losses. I don’t trust Bassitt and his 4.97 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP and the Red Sox have the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. Take the Red Sox to win this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Boston Red Sox ML