Jun 27, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Addison Barger (47) celebrates with third baseman Ernie Clement (22) after a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction 06/28/2025 Picks

Pick details

Toronto (44-37) vs Boston (40-43)

June 28, 2025 at 04:10 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Boston +1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5

(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, June 28th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays are 44-37 this year after they won game one by a score of 9-0 on Friday night. Toronto led 3-0 for most of the game, but they added two in the seventh and four in the eighth for the easy win. The Blue Jays recorded 16 hits in the game and they were led by Gimenez, who went 3-4 with three RBIs in the win. Toronto started Berrios, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Sandlin and Schultz combined for two scoreless innings. 

Prior to this series, the Blue Jays won two out of three against the Guardians, but lost two out of three against the White Sox before that. Toronto has won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 359 runs with a .258 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this season. Bo Bichette has led Toronto with 11 home runs and 49 RBIs, while Vladimir Guerrero has added 11 home runs and 40 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 7-3 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 92.1 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 40-43 this season after they were blown out in game one of this series. Boston managed to keep the game close for the first six innings, but their pitching staff fell apart in the last three innings in the loss. The Red Sox recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Hamilton, who drew two walks. Boston started Bello, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Bernardino allowed four earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost all three against the Angels and two out of three against the Giants. Boston has lost six games in a row and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 381 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Trevor Story has led Boston with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added 13 home runs and 36 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 3-1 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
The Red Sox have won each of their last six Saturday games as home underdogs.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games.
The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts
Each of the Blue Jays’ last five games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Red Sox’s last four home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last five day games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
Wilyer Abreu has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his 14 previous home appearances against the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
Ernie Clement has recorded two or more hits in each of the Blue Jays’ last eight games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
Chris Bassitt has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL opponents.
Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Red Sox.
Ernie Clement has recorded a Double in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games as road favorites against AL opponents.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction 
Boston comes into this matchup trying to snap a six game losing streak, but they have scored two runs or fewer in three straight games. The Red Sox are 22-18 at home this year, while the Blue Jays are 19-21 on the road. Toronto has scored at least six runs in three of their last four games, but they will face Giolito, who has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three starts. The Blue Jays will start Bassitt, who has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five outings. This Boston team is not playing very well right now, but I do think they have the hotter starting pitcher coming into this game. Take the Red Sox here. 

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML

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