Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, April 5th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 5-3 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 2-0 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Orioles. Their previous three games were a 5-4 home win against the Orioles, and two 8-3 road wins against the Reds.

The Pirates have a .232 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Ryan O’Hearn is the team’s best hitter with a .360 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 7. Oneil Cruz adds a team-high three home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 0-1 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 3-5 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL East. They have a 0-2 road record and are coming off a 2-3 road loss against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 4-5 road loss against the Pirates, an 8-3 home win and a 5-8 home loss against the Rangers.

The Orioles have a .249 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .368 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Adley Rutschman is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average. Gunnar Henderson leads the team in RBI with 6, also adding a team-high two home runs.

Chris Bassitt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 0-1 record, 8.31 ERA and 2.31 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: April 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 3.00
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last 11 day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 8.31
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 4-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Orioles’ last four games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Orioles and Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 24 of their last 28 games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Thirteen of the Pirates’ last 15 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as home favorites against AL East opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Triolo has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as home favorites.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (3) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his six previous appearances against the Pirates.
• Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Pirates.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in four of his last seven appearances against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank T29th in the league for steals this season (1).
• The Pirates rank 27th in the league for walks allowed this season (44).
• The Orioles rank T5th in the league for home runs allowed this season (6).
• The Orioles rank 25th in the league for walks allowed this season (35).

Orioles vs Pirates Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Pirates have won their last four meetings in Pittsburgh.  

In this Orioles vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -130 home favorites. The Pirates have four consecutive wins and will face Chris Bassitt for the Orioles, who had a rough start to the season. The Pirates also have a better bullpen ERA and score more runs and I don’t see the Orioles bouncing back in this one, as Bassitt has been historically weaker on the road, having a 5.47 road ERA last season. Take the Pirates on the moneyline.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML