Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 08/04/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Cade Povich for the start here and Povich is 2-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 68 strikeouts this season. Jesus Luzardo will get the start for the Phillies here and Luzardo is 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA and 140 strikeouts this season.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss at the hands of the Chicago Cubs last time out to sit at 51-61 on the year. After this series, the Orioles will head home for a series against the Athletics.

Orioles Looking To Rebound From Series Loss

Adley Rutschman has 62 hits with 15 doubles, 8 homers and 25 RBIs. Jackson Holliday has 107 hits with 15 doubles, 2 triples, 14 homers and 43 RBIs. Ryan Mountcastle has 46 hits with 13 doubles, 2 homers and 15 RBIs and Gunnar Henderson has 98 strikeouts while Holliday has a team-high 104 strikeouts as well this season. Heston Kjerstad’s added 4 homers and 19 RBIs while Jordan Westburg has 12 home runs and 27 RBIs this season.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Monday games against AL East opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one Double in each of the Orioles’ last five games as underdogs.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles against NL opponents.
• Colton Cowser has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to build on their 2-0 win over the Detroit Tigers from Sunday’s series finale to sit at 63-48 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Phillies Alternate Wins & Losses In 6 Straight Games

Nick Castellanos has 112 hits with 23 doubles including 15 home runs and 60 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 104 hits with a team-high 38 home runs and 88 RBIs but also has a team-high 131 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 10 stolen bases, 25 doubles, 16 home runs and 47 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 128 hits with a team-high 25 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 14 doubles and Bryson Stott has 12 doubles, 2 triples, 7 homers and 43 RBIs while Stott also has 17 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost five of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 14 of their last 17 night games against American League opponents following a home win.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games against the Orioles.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances at Citizens Bank Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in 22 of his last 23 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (38) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Orioles have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the under here. In a lefty-lefty matchup between two teams that have struggled against lefties this season, I don’t envision a ton of runs being scored in this game. The Phillies are coming off of a Sunday night game as well which doesn’t help their cause, and the Orioles are just a team I haven’t really been fond of considering that they can never get their feet back underneath themselves after a slow start to the year. Give me the under in this one.