Astros vs Reds Prediction 5/8/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 8th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 15-23 this year after they lost two out of three against the Dodgers by scores of 3-8, 2-1, and 2-12. In game three, Houston led 1-0 in the first inning, but they allowed the next 11 runs for the blowout loss. The Astros recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Matthews, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI. McCullers Jr allowed four hits and six earned runs over 2.2 innings for the loss, while Alexander allowed five earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Houston won two out of three against the Red Sox, but lost two out of three against the Orioles before that. 

This season, Houston has a 5.82 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and a .267 opponent batting average, while they have scored 185 runs with a .261 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added nine home runs and 27 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Mike Burrows, who is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over 37.2 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-18 this season after they lost all four games against the Cubs by scores of 4-5, 2-3, 6-7, and 3-8. In game four, Cincinnati allowed the first eight runs and never had a chance in the ugly loss. The Reds recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Dunn, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI. Lowder allowed one hit and three earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Phillips allowed five earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Cincinnati lost all three against the Pirates, but did win two out of three against the Rockies before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.59 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 156 runs with a .220 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is making his first appearance of the season. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six home games against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost each of their last eight Friday games.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday night games.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against the Astros.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against American League opponents.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last five games between the Astros and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Astros and Reds at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games at Great American Ball Park against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Astros’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four road games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games at Great American Ball Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances at Great American Ball Park.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 11 Friday night games at Great American Ball Park.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Reds as favorites.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against NL opponents.

Astros vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this matchup after losing seven straight games to the Cubs and Pirates, but four of their last five losses were by just one run. The Reds are 10-8 at home this year, while the Astros are 6-13 on the road. Houston has won three of their last five games, but they have allowed 8+ in two of their last three. The Astros are starting Burrows, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five outings, while Lodolo, is coming off of the IL for his first start. I don’t trust the Houston pitching staff and Burrows hasn’t been great, so give me the Reds at home here.

David Racey's Pick: Reds ML