Astros vs Red Sox Prediction 5/3/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 3rd at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 13-21 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 1-3 and 6-3. In game two, Houston scored the first six runs in the game and they were able to maintain the lead for the win. The Astros recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Matthews, who went 2-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Arrighetti allowed five hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while King picked up the save. Prior to this series, Houston lost two out of three against the Orioles and two out of three against the Yankees. 

This season, Houston has a 5.91 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and a .265 opponent batting average, while they have scored 175 runs with a .269 batting average and a .347 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added eight home runs and 26 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Cody Bolton, who is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP over 9.1 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 13-20 this year after they lost game two by a score of 6-3 on Saturday afternoon. Boston cut the deficit to 6-3 and had chances for more, but they couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Red Sox recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Abreu, who went 2-3 with one RBI. Early allowed six hits and five earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Watson allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Boston lost two out of three against the Blue Jays, but did win two out of three against the Orioles before that. 

This season, Boston has a 4.29 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while they have scored 129 runs with a .235 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Wilson Contreras has led the Red Sox with seven home runs and 21 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added two home runs and 18 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Ranger Suarez, who is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 35.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Astros have lost nine of their last 10 road games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last six Sunday day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against American League opponents following a win.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five games against the Astros following a home loss.
• The Astros have won five of their last six games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Red Sox following a road win.
• The Astros have won the first inning in four of their last five day games.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Red Sox’s last six day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eighteen of the Astros’ last 23 games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 19 of the Astros’ last 22 games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games against AL West opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games.
• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four day games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 games at Fenway Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Christian Walker has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last five games at Fenway Park.

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup after losing three of their last four games and they have scored just seven runs in those four games. The Red Sox are 6-9 at home this year, while the Astros are 5-13 on the road. Houston has the worst pitching staff to start the MLB season, but they have looked better in this series. The Astros are starting Bolton, who will most likely be an opener, while Suarez has allowed zero earned runs in three of his last four outings. I don’t love this Boston offense, but I will back the Red Sox here.

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML