Astros vs Phillies Prediction 9/10/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 10th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 74-72 this year after they split the first two games by scores of 6-5 and 7-11. In game two, Houston led 6-4 in the fourth inning, but they allowed the next seven runs for the loss. The Astros recorded 12 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Paredes, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Brown allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings, while King picked up the loss. Prior to this series, Houston lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did win three out of four against the White Sox before that. 

This season, Houston has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 660 runs with a .241 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 38 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Cristian Javier, who is 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 49.2 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 82-64 this season after they won game two by a score of 11-7 on Wednesday. Philadelphia had their lead cut to 11-7 in the seventh inning, but they closed it down for the win. The Phillies recorded 12 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Schwarber, who went 1-5 with one home run and four RBIs. Sanchez allowed 10 hits and six earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Bowlan allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Philadelphia split four games with the Braves and won two out of three against the Diamondbacks. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while they have scored 658 runs with a .243 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 44 home runs and 92 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 27 home runs and 82 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 12-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 136.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have lost each of their last three games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five Thursday games against NL opponents.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL opponents following a home win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against AL opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games at Citizens Bank Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Thirteen of the Phillies’ last 14 home games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Astros’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Astros’ last five day games against NL opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Phillies’ last seven day games against AL West opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five home games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as a home favorite against AL West opponents.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in four of his five previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (44) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Cristian Javier has recorded four or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.428) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 5th in the league for walks allowed this season (435).
• The Phillies rank T24th in the league for walks this season (463).
• The Astros rank 5th in the league for home runs this season (192).
• The Astros rank 5th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.410).

Astros vs Phillies Prediction 

Houston comes into this matchup after losing three of their last four games, but they have scored 13 runs in the first two games of this series. The Astros are 37-34 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 41-33 at home. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have allowed 5+ runs in three of their last four. The Phillies are starting Wheeler, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, while Javier has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five outings. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.

David Racey's Pick: Phillies -1.5