Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction 07/07/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 7, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (44-46, 21-21 Away) spent the previous three series at home and failed to win any. After being swept by the Miami Marlins, the D-backs split with the San Francisco Giants and lost to the Kansas City Royals. In a rubber match on Sunday, Arizona suffered a 4-0 defeat. Anthony DeSclafani took the loss after allowing four runs on four hits with six strikeouts and no walks in 4.0 innings.

This season, the Diamondbacks average 5.12 runs per game (4th in the MLB) on a .252/.327/.445 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Diamondbacks’ staff has a 4.72 ERA (26th) and 1.33 WHIP (22nd). Eugenio Suarez leads the Diamondbacks with a .252 batting average, 28 home runs, and 73 RBI this season.

Zac Gallen will take the mound for the Diamondbacks on Monday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 6-9 record in 18 starts this year with a 5.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 104.0 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (48-41, 27-15 Home) lost back-to-back series against the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies on the road, but returned to winning ways by defeating the Texas Rangers at home. In a rubber match on Sunday, the Padres secured a 4-1 victory. It was a bullpen day for San Diego. David Morgan opened the game, while Kyle Hart got the win after allowing no runs on zero hits with two strikeouts and no walks in 3.2 innings.

This year, the Padres average 4.08 runs per game (22nd in the MLB) on a .246/.316/.374 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.66 ERA (8th) and 1.23 WHIP (9th). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .288 batting average, 14 home runs, and 52 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Nick Pivetta, who is 9-2 in 17 starts this season, with a 3.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 97.0 innings.

Why the Padres will beat the Diamondbacks

The Padres have won eight of their last nine games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Padres have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three night games.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the last nine games between the Diamondbacks and Padres at Petco Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games as favorites against NL West opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games at Petco Park.

Matchup/League Facts

The Padres rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
The Padres rank 4th in the league for hits allowed this season (678).
The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (461).
The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for home runs this season (132).

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction

The Diamondbacks won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. Arizona was better in two of three H2Hs this season, but I am backing the Padres in this one because Pivetta is a better pitcher than Gallen. Pivetta didn’t have the best month in June, posting a 4.71 ERA, but he did play well in the last two starts and allowed just one run in 13.0 innings. Pivetta faced the D-backs earlier this season and surrendered two runs in 7.0 innings in San Diego’s 8-2 victory. Gallen, on the other hand, allowed 4+ runs in eight of his previous ten starts. He allowed four runs in 6.1 innings in his last start against the Padres. Back the hosts here.