Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction 9/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 4th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 72-69 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL West. They have a 36-36 home record and are coming off a 6-2 home win against the White Sox. They will face the Phillies and the Rays next.

The Houston Astros have a .240 batting average this season, .315 OBP, and .408 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the Astros’ best hitter with a .316 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 94, adding a team-high 37 home runs.

Cristian Javier (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, with a 1-5 record, 6.45 ERA, and 1.63 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 74-67 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 33-36 road record and are coming off a 1-0 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Royals and the Rangers next.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .243 batting average this season, .315 OBP, and .395 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the Diamondbacks’ best hitter with a .298 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 67, while Nolan Arenado adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, with a 9-12 record, 5.08 ERA, and 1.48 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: September 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier      Record this season: 1-5      ERA: 6.45
• Home Record: 0-2
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-0

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last nine Friday games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have won eight of their last nine games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Astros have covered the run line each of their last nine Friday games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Astros following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in five of their last six games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against AL opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 9-12      ERA: 5.08
• Road Record: 5-7
• Last 5 against Astros: 0-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Astros have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a home win.
• The underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Diamondbacks and Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Diamondbacks following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line each of their last five road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight games against NL opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last seven games between the Diamondbacks and Astros at Daikin Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Astros’ last nine night games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Diamondbacks’ last six road games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five home games against NL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 16 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.316) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last three night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his six previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL West opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Gabriel Moreno ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.298) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (581).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (43).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (35).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (963).

Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction

The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings against the Diamondbacks and have won two of their last three meetings in Houston.

In this Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -125 home favorites. I don’t like the pitching in this game, as both starters have a combined 11.53 ERA and almost 1.50+ WHIP. Kelly has given up 15 runs in three of his last four starts and Javier 3+ runs in four of his last five starts. Both bullpens have a 4+ ERA this season and even though both offenses have been struggling lately, everything indicates that they will bounce back today. Take the over 8.5 runs in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 8.5