Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5/30/25 MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves meet Friday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Lucas Giolito for the start, and Giolito is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. In his career, Giolito is 0-2 with a 12.51 ERA and 12 strikeouts against the Braves. The Atlanta Braves will send out Grant Holmes for the start, and Holmes is 3-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 55 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ second career start against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-5 loss at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers last time out to slip to 27-31 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.

Red Sox Lose 5th In A Row

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 59 hits, including a team-high 17 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 62 hits with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and 50 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 46 hits with 6 home runs, 21 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 69 hits with 13 doubles, 6 triples, 4 home runs, 34 RBIs, and a team-high 13 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 40 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 16 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 13 home runs with 29 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 3 homers, 2 triples, 20 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Braves have lost six of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
• The Red Sox have won 16 of their last 18 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a win.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has hit at least one home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against the Braves.
• Trevor Story has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 appearances at Truist Park.
• Rafael Devers has recorded two RBIs in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road underdogs.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran ranks T4th in the league in Hits (69) this season.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to build on their 9-3 win in their last matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies to improve to 26-29 on the year. After this series, the Braves will square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.

Braves Snap Three-Game Losing Streak

Austin Riley leads the Braves with 63 hits, including 9 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 10 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 68 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 52 hits with 6 home runs and 22 RBIs in addition to 5 stolen bases, and Matt Olson has 49 hits with 10 doubles, 12 home runs, and 29 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 50 hits with 9 home runs and 24 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 48 hits with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, and 32 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases as well, and Nick Allen has 6 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last 10 night games at Truist Park following a road win.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last nine games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday home games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last six night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last nine Friday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Jarred Kelenic has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Marcell Ozuna ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.428) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Braves’ last five games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

I’m on the Braves here. I just can’t get on board with the Red Sox in their current form and knowing the struggles that Lucas Giolito has had against Atlanta. Now, Giolito vs. Holmes was the matchup when these teams met two weeks ago, but the bullpen for Atlanta has improved since, and the Red Sox are just in a tailspin right now. I think that Atlanta gets the job done here behind a strong start from Holmes, who has been solid at home this season, and I’ll back Atlanta to get the job done here.