Nationals vs Orioles Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 17th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 19-27 this season after they won game one by a score of 4-3 on Friday night. Washington trailed 3-2 late in the game, but they scored once in the eighth and once in the ninth to escape with the win. The Nationals recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Wood, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Washington started Gore, who allowed 10 hits and two earned runs over 3.2 innings, while Lopez got the win in relief and Finnegan picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Nationals lost three out of four against the Braves and all three against the Cardinals. Washington has lost eight of their last ten games, and they are currently fourth in the NL East standings. The Washington pitching staff has a 5.30 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a .268 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 187 runs with a .237 batting average and a .307 on-base percentage this season. James Wood has led Washington with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Nathaniel Lowe has added eight home runs and 31 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 54.0 innings pitched this season. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 15-28 this year after they dropped game one in this series on Friday night. Baltimore led 2-1 in the third and 3-2 in the eighth, but their bullpen couldn’t hold the lead for the loss. The Orioles recorded 14 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Urias, Holliday, and Laureano, who all had one RBI in the loss. Baltimore started Povich, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Bautista picked up the loss out of the bullpen.

Prior to this series, the Orioles lost all three games against the Twins, but did win two out of three against the Angels before that. Baltimore has lost four games in a row, and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 5.31 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a .273 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 159 runs with a .230 batting average and a .299 on-base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with eight home runs and 25 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added seven home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Kyle Gibson, who is 0-2 with a 13.11 ERA and a 2.49 WHIP over 11.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Nationals will beat the Orioles 

• The Orioles have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Nationals and Orioles.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the last eight games between the Nationals and Orioles.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last 10 games as underdogs against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the last 10 games between the Nationals and Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Orioles’ last seven games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last three games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Ramon Laureano has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with his team as a favorite against the Nationals.
• Ramon Urias has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Ramon Laureano has scored a run in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Gibson has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as favorites.
• Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in four of his last nine appearances with the Orioles as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Saturday appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Josh Bell has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against the Orioles.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Orioles.
• Nathaniel Lowe has scored at least one run in six of his last seven appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Amed Rosario has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.

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Nationals vs Orioles Prediction 

Washington was able to get a nice win on Friday night to open this series, and they will look for two in a row here, but they are just 9-15 on the road this year. Baltimore is 8-13 at home so far this season, and they have lost four games in a row. The Orioles have been one of the biggest disappointments in the MLB this year, and they are starting Gibson, who has allowed 17 earned runs over 11.2 innings in three starts. The Nationals are starting Irvin, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I don’t love the pitching matchup here, but I think the Nats have great value against this struggling Baltimore lineup.