Braves vs Red Sox Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 17th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 23-22 this season after they won game one in this series by a score of 4-2 on Friday night. Atlanta had their lead cut to 2-1 in the seventh inning, but it added two runs in the ninth to secure the win. The Braves recorded seven hits in the game, and they were led by Olson, Murphy, Fairchild, and Allen, who all had one RBI in the win. Atlanta started Sale, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Iglesias allowed a run in the ninth, but still picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Braves won three out of four against the Nationals, but lost two out of three against the Pirates before that. Atlanta has won four of their last five games, and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 179 runs with a .240 batting average and a .312 on-base percentage this year. Austin Riley has led Atlanta with eight home runs and 26 RBIs, while Matt Olson has added eight home runs and 22 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Grant Holmes, who is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 45.2 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 22-24 this year after they dropped game one by a score of 4-2 last night. Boston didn’t score in the first six innings, but they scored in the seventh and added one in the ninth in the loss. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Refsnyder and Story, who both had one RBI in the loss. Boston started Crochet, who allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 7.0 innings for the loss, while Hendriks allowed two earned runs in just 0.2 innings of relief. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost all three games against the Tigers, but did win two out of three against the Royals before that. Boston has lost four games in a row, and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 223 runs with a .254 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage this season. Alex Bregman has led Boston with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added 11 home runs and 27 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 16.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Braves

• The Braves have lost six of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five home games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 Saturday night games as road underdogs.

Why the Braves will beat the Red Sox 

• The Braves have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four games at Fenway Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Braves and Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Single in each of the Red Sox’s last six games against NL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in 20 of his last 21 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents at Fenway Park.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Sean Murphy has hit at least one home run in each of the Braves’ last three games as road underdogs.
• Matt Olson has recorded an RBI in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Red Sox.
• Ozzie Albies has scored a run in each of his last four appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one Single in 10 of his last 11 appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.

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Braves vs Red Sox Prediction 

Atlanta got a fantastic start from Sale on Friday night in their game one win, but they are just 8-15 on the road so far this year. The Braves have won four of their last five games, and they have allowed just two runs in three of their last four. Boston is trying to avoid a fifth straight loss here, but they have allowed 34 runs in those four games. The Red Sox are starting Giolito, who pitched better last time out, but allowed six earned runs to Texas before that. The Braves are going with Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three starts. I don’t really trust either pitcher in this game, so I like the over here.