Red Sox vs Royals Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals are 23-16 this year after they won all four games against the White Sox by scores of 3-0, 4-3, 2-1, and 10-0. In their game four win, Kansas City jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first and never looked back in the blowout win. The Royals recorded 17 hits in the game, and they were led by Perez, who went 2-4 with three RBIs in the win. KC started Bubic, who allowed six hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Stratton and Cruz finished the last two innings of the shutout. 

Prior to that series, the Royals won two out of three against the Orioles and all three against the Rays. Kansas City has won nine of its last ten games, and they are currently tied for second in the AL Central standings. The Kansas City pitching staff has a 2.91 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 139 runs with a .245 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage this season. Vinnie Pasquantino has led KC with six home runs and 23 RBIs, while Bobby Witt has added five home runs and 23 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Michael Lorenzen, who is 3-3 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 38.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Royals will beat the Red Sox 

• The Royals have won each of their last eight Friday night games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday night home games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against AL Central opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals' last nine night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox's last six games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Royals' last five night games.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Red Sox's last 10 night games.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit a home run in each of the Royals' last two games as underdogs.
• Michael Lorenzen has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at Kauffman Stadium.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Royals' last eight games at Kauffman Stadium against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has scored at least one run in 14 of the Royals' last 15 Friday games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Royals' last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Salvador Perez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances against AL East opponents.
• Mark Canha has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Double in three of the Red Sox's last four games as favorites against the Royals.
• Rafael Devers has recorded an RBI in each of the Red Sox's last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in five of the Red Sox's last six night games.
• Alex Bregman has recorded a Single in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Royals.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.

Red Sox vs Royals Prediction 

Kansas City continues to be the hottest team in the MLB over the last two weeks, and they are 15-5 at home so far this year. The Royals have won 15 of their last 17 games, and their pitching staff has been elite, with the exception of Lorenzen’s last start, where he allowed five earned runs over 4.2 innings. Boston is just 9-10 on the road this year, and they are starting Dobbins, who has been decent in limited action. I obviously don’t like Lorenzen’s last start, but I can’t fade this red-hot KC team. Take the Royals here.