Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks

Cubs Drop Back-To-Back Games

Ian Happ has a team-high 43 hits with 9 doubles, 3 home runs, and 19 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has 42 hits, including 8 doubles, 9 home runs, and 31 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki also has 35 hits with 6 doubles and 9 home runs and 31 RBIs of his own. Miguel Amaya added 6 doubles and 16 RBIs, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has also contributed 11 doubles this season. Dansby Swanson has added 7 home runs and 20 RBIs, while he also has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Cubs with 45 strikeouts so far this season. Crow-Armstrong also has a team-high 12 stolen bases, while Nico Hoerner has 7 stolen bases this season. Tucker’s also added 10 stolen bases, while Michael Busch has also chipped in 6 home runs and 22 RBIs this season.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Cubs following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of the Cubs' last four games as underdogs.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded an RBI in each of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs' last six night games.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Single in nine of his 10 previous appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against the Mets.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs' last nine road games.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 5th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to build off their 7-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last time out to improve to 24-14 on the year. After this series, the Mets will square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Mets Looking For Consistency

Pete Alonso has a team-high 45 hits with 13 doubles, 9 home runs, 34 RBIs, and a .328 batting average, while Juan Soto has 36 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs, and 17 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 43 hits with 4 stolen bases along with 7 doubles, 7 home runs, and 24 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 4 home runs, 15 RBIs, but has a team-high 30 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 29 hits with 6 doubles and 7 home runs, and 23 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 8 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 9 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets' last four games as home favorites.
• Tyrone Taylor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets' last seven night games.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last four night games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last six games against NL Central opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances.
• Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.635) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs' last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets' last four games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Prediction

I’m on the Cubs here. I just think that these two teams are a lot more similar than this line would suggest, and Taillon has had some decent numbers against the Mets in his career, including a pair of strong starts against New York last season. Clay Holmes has been on quite the run, but I think the Cubs upend that and get the win on the road to draw first blood here. Give me Chicago in this one.